Canada’s ambitious pledge to slash greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 is now out of reach, according to a sobering new report from the Canadian Climate Institute. The analysis shows that national emissions totalled 694 million tonnes in 2024 — virtually unchanged from 2023 — putting the country well behind schedule and facing an uphill climb.
Despite some reductions in emissions from electricity generation and heavy industry, gains were erased by a 1.9 per cent rise in oil and gas emissions, which now account for nearly a third of Canada’s total. Transportation emissions remained flat, making up 23 per cent of the country’s total, while other sectors saw only minor declines.
“To hit our 2030 target, Canada would need to cut 40 million tonnes of emissions every single year,” said Dave Sawyer, principal economist at the Canadian Climate Institute. “That scale of reduction just isn’t technically feasible in the time we have left — especially with emissions in oil and gas continuing to grow.”
The report highlights a troubling slowdown in climate action, blaming recent federal and provincial policy shifts for reversing momentum. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s decision to repeal the consumer carbon price and pause the electric vehicle mandate, combined with moves by Saskatchewan to extend coal plant operations and Alberta to freeze its industrial carbon price, have weakened the pace of emission reductions.
Canada has long struggled to meet its climate commitments and remains the worst performer in the G7 on cutting emissions. The institute’s analysis suggests Canada is now on track for only a 20 to 25 per cent reduction by 2030 — far short of its international pledge.
While Ottawa maintains it is still committed to achieving net-zero by 2050, Carney has declined to confirm whether his government will stick to the 2030 and 2035 targets. He has instead promised a new climate strategy aimed at making Canada “climate competitive,” with details yet to come.