As Canada’s federal election approaches, new polling across INsauga’s network shows that Ontario voters are laser-focused on the economy, heavily engaged in the election process, and closely split between the Liberals and Conservatives in what is shaping up to be a tightly contested race.
More than 25,000 votes were cast across a series of polls highlighting the key issues and leadership factors driving Canadians to the polls. When asked which issues need to be addressed most urgently after the election, nearly half of respondents — 45.6 per cent — cited the economy as their top concern. Food prices (16.5 per cent) and crime (16.1 per cent) followed, while housing affordability (13.6 per cent) and defence and military capabilities (8.1 per cent) ranked lower, suggesting a strong domestic focus among voters.
Voter engagement appears exceptionally high. Nearly 95 per cent of respondents said they had either already voted or plan to vote on Election Day, with only 5.5 per cent indicating they would not participate. This level of civic engagement surpasses that of recent federal elections, indicating a highly motivated electorate.
In terms of expected outcomes, 54.5 per cent of voters believe the Liberals will win, while 45.5 per cent anticipate a Conservative victory. Despite tight polling between the two parties, more respondents expressed confidence in a Liberal outcome, possibly reflecting the perceived advantage of incumbency or skepticism about the opposition’s ability to close the gap before Election Day.
When asked if a different leader would change their vote, 62.2 per cent of respondents said no, signaling strong party loyalty. However, 37.8 per cent admitted that leadership could sway their decision, emphasizing the importance of leadership personalities in Canadian federal politics.
Leadership remains the dominant factor influencing voter choice, with 73.9 per cent of respondents saying the federal party leader is the single most important factor in determining their vote. Traditional campaign elements like candidate debates, political ads, and word-of-mouth influence were far less impactful.
On voter intentions, the Liberals currently hold a narrow lead over the Conservatives. In the latest poll with one week to go, 49.1 per cent of respondents said they plan to vote Liberal, compared to 45.9 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP trails far behind with 4.9 per cent support.
Overall, the bottom line is clear: Canadians are voting with the economy and leadership at the forefront of their minds. With a highly engaged electorate and slim margins separating the top two parties, voter turnout and undecided voters could play a pivotal role in determining the final outcome of this historic election.