As the Trudeau government gears up for the announcement of the federal budget on Tuesday, expert predictions point toward likely tax hikes aimed at covering the costs of substantial pre-budget promises. According to sources, these commitments total over $38 billion spread across several years, with approximately $21 billion expected to impact the government’s finances directly due to the nature of these loan-based programs.
Despite these extensive spending plans, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has asserted that the budget deficit will not widen this year. With the Canadian economy managing to dodge a recession yet still experiencing slow growth, the government finds itself constrained to increase its revenues to support new initiatives while maintaining fiscal stability.
Robert Asselin, a senior policy advisor at the Business Council of Canada and former advisor to both a previous finance minister and Prime Minister Trudeau, shared his insights. “They’ve squeezed themselves into a tight fiscal corner with ongoing unsustainable spending commitments,” Asselin commented, expressing confidence in the government’s need to enhance revenue.
While Freeland has consistently reassured that middle-class taxes will not rise, alternative tax measures such as a surtax on large corporations or a wealth tax, although appealing, are deemed ineffective in practice by Asselin. He suggests that the only viable route is a tax increase, which needs to be implemented thoughtfully to avoid further damage to the Liberals’ already shaky execution record.
The necessity for fiscal prudence is echoed by James Thorne, chief capital market strategist at Wellington Altus Private Wealth, who emphasized the importance of demonstrating fiscal responsibility to enable the Bank of Canada to reduce interest rates. This, in turn, would provide relief from living costs and stimulate economic growth.
Adding pressure to the federal financial strategy is the recent trend of heavy spending by provincial governments, which complicates efforts to control inflation and manage collective government debt.
This upcoming budget, set to also address housing and economic growth, arrives at a crucial time for the Trudeau administration, which is keen on reversing its declining political fortunes ahead of potential elections, with a focus on engaging younger voters like millennials and Generation Z. As housing remains a critical topic, recent announcements hint at targeted measures to address these demographics’ needs and concerns.