The Conservative Party of Canada made notable gains in the recent federal election, but the focus has quickly shifted to its leader, Pierre Poilievre, who lost his seat in Carleton—a riding he held for nearly two decades.
Despite the defeat, political strategist Jamie Ellerton says Poilievre will likely find another riding and re-enter the House of Commons through a byelection. “He will find a seat to run in,” Ellerton said Tuesday morning during an interview with CTV News Channel. “But what happens next is the more interesting question.”
In Canadian politics, party leaders without a seat in Parliament are generally expected to secure one as soon as possible. This often involves a sitting MP stepping aside in a safe riding to trigger a byelection—a practice with precedent at both the federal and provincial levels. A notable example occurred in 2013 when B.C. Liberal leader Christy Clark lost her seat during a provincial election, despite her party winning. She was later returned to the legislature through a byelection in a different riding.
At the federal level, former leaders such as Joe Clark and Jack Layton also served without seats until they secured one in subsequent byelections. While it remains unclear whether any Conservative MP is prepared to vacate their seat for Poilievre, such a move would not be without precedent.
Political commentator Scott Reid, a former communications director for Prime Minister Paul Martin, said it is evident Poilievre intends to stay on as leader. “He lost in his own riding, yes, but his concession speech made it clear—he’s not stepping down,” Reid told CTV.
In contrast, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, who also lost his seat, announced he would resign once an interim leader is appointed. Poilievre made no such commitment, instead reaffirming his political ambitions.
Reid acknowledged that some within the Conservative caucus might be frustrated after what he called a “gigantic 26-point lead” vanished during the campaign. Still, he does not believe there’s sufficient internal momentum to remove Poilievre. “I don’t think they’re going to have any success crowbarring this guy out,” he said. “He has enough support within caucus and the party to remain.”
Ellerton attributed Poilievre’s local defeat in part to an unusual electoral dynamic. “The collapse of the NDP, particularly in Ontario, produced some strange results,” he explained.
Looking ahead, Ellerton emphasized that the party’s next moves will be critical. “The bigger question is about strategy. What now? What next?” he said. He advised against an immediate push for another election, warning that many Canadians are experiencing political fatigue.
“I think Canadians are kind of fed up with politics right now,” Ellerton said. “Many voters held their breath and picked between the Liberals and Conservatives, unsure of either option.”
His recommendation for the Conservatives is to cooperate with the governing Liberals on select policy issues—particularly infrastructure—as a way to rebuild trust with swing voters. “It’s about showing credibility to those who didn’t vote Conservative this time around,” he said.
As Parliament prepares to resume, the spotlight remains fixed on a leader who lost his seat but appears determined to carry on—possibly setting the stage for a political comeback unlike any seen in recent memory.