Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government is heading into the summer with a slim parliamentary majority, but a series of upcoming byelections could determine whether that majority survives when Canadians return to the polls later this year.
The political landscape began shifting after six Members of Parliament announced plans to resign over the summer. Two departures have already become official. Former Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson has left federal politics to become Canada’s ambassador to the European Union, while Bloc Québécois MP Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay is preparing to enter Quebec provincial politics.
Under Canadian law, once a seat becomes vacant, the Speaker of the House informs Elections Canada, after which the prime minister has between 11 and 180 days to call a byelection. Campaigns can last from 36 to 50 days, giving the government flexibility in deciding when voters will head to the polls.
More departures are expected in the coming months. Former Liberal cabinet ministers Steven Guilbeault and Nathaniel Erskine-Smith have indicated they will resign, while Independent MP Alexandre Boulerice and Conservative MP Cathay Wagantall are also expected to leave their seats. With three of the vacancies located in Quebec, the government may choose to avoid overlapping campaigns with the province’s October election, making November or December the most likely time for byelections.
Despite the resignations, the Liberals are expected to retain control of the House of Commons when Parliament resumes in September. Following several floor crossings and recent byelection victories, the governing party ended the spring session with 173 seats, compared with 169 seats held collectively by opposition parties.
The departure of six MPs will reduce the Liberal caucus to 170 members, technically below the 172 seats normally required for a majority. However, because opposition parties are also losing seats, the Liberals are expected to maintain a narrow working majority, giving them more votes than all opposition parties combined.
The real challenge will come when voters elect replacements. Should the Liberals lose all six byelections, they would fall back into minority territory. Winning just one of the six contests, however, would allow them to preserve majority control, although in the event of a tie, Speaker Francis Scarpaleggia could be called upon to cast the deciding vote.
For Prime Minister Carney, the byelections represent more than routine political contests. They could determine whether his government continues to enjoy the stability of a majority or is forced to navigate the uncertainties and compromises of minority rule.
As the countdown to the fall session begins, the balance of power in Ottawa hangs on six ridings and the choices voters will make in the months ahead.