Ontario motorists hoping for relief at the pumps may be in for another disappointment. Just days before the federal gas tax holiday begins, fuel prices are expected to climb sharply — potentially cancelling out much of the savings before drivers even get a chance to benefit.
Industry forecasts suggest gasoline prices in Ontario could rise by about 10 cents per litre by Saturday, coming just ahead of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s temporary suspension of the federal fuel excise tax, scheduled to start Monday.
The federal tax break was announced as a cost-of-living measure intended to ease pressure on families and commuters. But rising global oil prices and seasonal fuel changes are now threatening to swallow that benefit almost immediately.
Experts say part of the increase is tied to the switch to summer gasoline blends, which are more expensive to produce. The rest is being driven by volatile world markets, particularly tensions in the Middle East and disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes.
That matters directly to drivers in communities like Brampton, Mississauga, Toronto and across the GTA, where many households rely heavily on vehicles for work, school and daily life. For families already dealing with higher grocery, housing and insurance costs, another spike in fuel prices adds fresh pressure.
Diesel prices are also expected to rise, which can have ripple effects across the economy by increasing transportation and delivery costs. That often means higher prices on store shelves as businesses pass along expenses.
Some analysts warn this may be only the beginning of a costly summer if global supply remains tight. Even if geopolitical tensions ease, depleted inventories and ongoing demand could keep prices elevated for months.
Drivers looking to save are being advised to shop around, monitor local price trends and avoid peak pricing hours where possible. In the GTA, evening fill-ups are often seen as a better option than daytime purchases.
The bigger story, however, is that tax cuts alone may not be enough when global markets are driving prices upward. For Ontario drivers, the real challenge isn’t just taxes — it’s the growing unpredictability of energy costs.
As the long weekend and summer travel season approach, one reality is becoming clear: Canadians may get a tax break, but they’re still paying the price.