BEIJING — A decade after China ended its one-child policy, the country’s efforts to reverse a sharp demographic decline are struggling as growing numbers of young couples decide to remain child-free.
Grace, 25, and her husband say they have no plans to have children, despite pressure from family and broader society. Like many young adults in China, they are pushing back against traditional expectations as the government intensifies efforts to raise the national birth rate.
China scrapped its strict one-child policy in January 2016, replacing it with a two-child policy in a bid to address looming population challenges. Yet the country now faces a deepening demographic crisis. The population has declined for three consecutive years, and the United Nations projects China’s population could shrink from about 1.4 billion today to 633 million by the end of the century.
Births have fallen sharply. China recorded just 9.54 million births in 2024—roughly half the number seen in 2016—raising concerns about an aging society and a shrinking workforce.
More young people like Grace describe themselves as “DINKs,” or “dual income, no kids,” a term that has gained widespread traction online. Many either plan to delay parenthood or have decided against having children altogether, citing high living and child-rearing costs, career pressures and lifestyle preferences.
Grace, a content creator who asked to be identified only by her English name due to fear of repercussions, said financial security is a prerequisite she has not yet met.
“I need a decent income and some savings,” she said. “Without that, I wouldn’t even consider having kids.”
The DINK label has gone viral on Chinese social media platforms such as Xiaohongshu, where related hashtags have attracted hundreds of millions of views. While the trend has sparked open discussion, it has also drawn criticism.
“If I publicly talk about being a DINK and how comfortable my life is, there would definitely be people who wouldn’t be happy about it,” Grace said.
Government incentives face limits
Since abandoning the one-child policy—introduced more than three decades ago to curb overpopulation and poverty—Chinese authorities have rolled out a series of pronatalist measures. Senior leaders have pledged expanded childcare support, including subsidies of about $500 per year for each child under the age of three, according to state media. In January, Beijing also imposed a value-added tax on condoms and other contraceptives.
Despite these efforts, analysts say reversing the trend will be difficult. China was overtaken by India as the world’s most populous country in 2023, and experts warn that social attitudes have shifted faster than policy.
“The number of people choosing not to marry or not to have children is increasing, and fertility intentions among the younger generation are weak,” said He Yafu, an independent Chinese demographer.
Pan Wang, an associate professor at University of New South Wales, said decades of population control policies have had lasting cultural effects.
“The one-child policy fundamentally reshaped family norms and lifestyles,” Wang said. “Many people, especially those from the one-child generation, are accustomed to—and often prefer—smaller families.”
As China confronts the long-term consequences of its demographic shift, the growing appeal of a child-free life among young adults suggests that policy incentives alone may not be enough to reverse the decline.