As the 2025 federal election campaign nears its final stretch, the Liberal Party has regained a modest but stable five-point lead over the Conservatives, according to the latest tracking data released by Nanos Research.
The three-day rolling survey conducted between April 20 and 22 places the Liberal Party at 44%, ahead of the Conservatives at 39%. The New Democratic Party (NDP), which saw a minor bump following the national debate, has dropped to 8%, while other parties remain in the single digits: Bloc Québécois at 5%, Greens at 3%, and People’s Party of Canada at 1%.
According to Nik Nanos, the firm’s chief pollster, “The race between the Liberals and Conservatives remains close and stable. However, as the campaign nears its end, voter focus has sharpened on the two leading parties, leading to a decline in support for the smaller parties.”
Regional Overview
- Ontario: Liberals lead with 48%, followed by Conservatives at 40%, and the NDP slipping to 7%.
- Quebec: Liberals hold a strong lead at 42%, with the Bloc Québécois at 24%, Conservatives at 25%.
- British Columbia: Liberals slightly lead at 41%, Conservatives at 38%, and NDP at 16%.
- Atlantic Canada: Liberals dominate with 58%, compared to 32% for Conservatives.
- Prairies: Conservatives continue to lead with 55%, ahead of Liberals at 34%.
Preferred Prime Minister
When asked who they would prefer as Prime Minister:
- Mark Carney leads with 49% support,
- Pierre Poilievre follows at 35%,
- Jagmeet Singh trails with only 4%.
Demographic Trends
- Women: 51% support the Liberals, 31% Conservatives, and 9% NDP.
- Men: 47% support Conservatives, 37% Liberals, and 6% NDP.