As Canada’s federal election campaign enters its second week, the Liberal Party under Mark Carney has widened its national lead over the Conservatives to 10 percentage points, according to the latest polling from Nanos Research, conducted for CTV News and The Globe and Mail.
The latest three-day rolling average ending April 3 shows the Liberals at 46 per cent, up one point from the previous day, while the Conservatives have slipped to 36 per cent. The New Democratic Party holds steady at nine per cent, with the Bloc Québécois at five per cent, the Green Party at two per cent, and the People’s Party of Canada at one per cent.
“On Day 1 of tracking, the Liberal advantage stood at five points. Today, it has doubled to 10,” said Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist at Nanos Research. “This increase comes in the wake of Mark Carney’s high-profile response to President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement, which appears to have resonated with voters.”
Carney Dominates as Preferred Prime Minister
Carney continues to outperform Pierre Poilievre in personal approval ratings. According to the poll, 51 per cent of Canadians now identify Carney as their preferred prime minister, up one point from the previous day. In contrast, Poilievre has dropped to 31 per cent, down two points. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh remains steady at five per cent.
“As context, the last politician to hit preferred PM numbers at this level was Justin Trudeau during his initial political honeymoon in 2015,” noted Nanos.
Regional Trends
- In Ontario, the Liberals have surged to 51 per cent, expanding their lead to 15 points over the Conservatives, who now sit at 36 per cent.
- In Quebec, the Liberals are polling at 54 per cent, while the Conservatives have dropped three points to 17 per cent.
- In the Prairies, the Conservatives remain dominant at 60 per cent, with the Liberals trailing at 25 per cent.
Gender Gap Persists
The Nanos tracking also highlights a significant gender divide in voter intentions:
- 51 per cent of women surveyed said they would vote Liberal, compared to just 28 per cent for the Conservatives.
- Among men, the trend is reversed: 44 per cent support the Conservatives, while 39 per cent would back the Liberals.