New Survey Indicates Tightening Federal Race Ahead of Liberal Leadership Vote
A recent Leger poll suggests that Canada’s Conservative Party would face a shrinking lead over the Liberals if Mark Carney were to assume leadership of the party. The poll, conducted from February 21 to 23, surveyed 1,534 Canadians on their voting preferences ahead of the upcoming Liberal leadership vote.
When asked which party they would support if a federal election were held today, 38% of respondents favored Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party, while 35% backed the Liberals, a slight increase of two points for the Liberals compared to the previous week’s poll.
However, when respondents were asked how they would vote if Mark Carney were leading the Liberals, 40% said they would support the Liberals, overtaking the Conservatives, who remained at 38%. This shift signals a potential tight race in the next federal election, depending on the outcome of the Liberal leadership race set to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Following the Liberal leadership debate on February 24, Carney criticized Poilievre’s leadership, stating on social media, “Pierre Poilievre is the wrong person, at the worst time.”
Poilievre responded by attacking Carney’s credibility on affordability issues, writing, “Carney couldn’t answer what a week’s worth of groceries costs a family of four. While Canadians were dealing with skyrocketing grocery bills due to Liberal inflation and carbon taxes, Carney was jet-setting around the world, collecting big cheques while pushing for higher carbon taxes.”
The Liberal Party leadership race, running from February 26 to March 9, will determine the party’s next leader. Candidates include Mark Carney, Chrystia Freeland, Karina Gould, and Frank Baylis.
While the national poll results suggest Carney could pose a serious challenge to the Conservatives, the numbers vary across provinces. In Ontario, where 44% of respondents said they would still vote Conservative regardless of Carney’s leadership, only 36% said they would switch to the Liberals.
As Canadians await the results of the Liberal leadership contest and the possibility of a federal election later this spring, Ontario voters are set to head to the polls on February 27 to elect their next provincial