Defence Minister David McGuinty says he has “every confidence” that Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first federal budget will pass through Canada’s minority Parliament, despite warnings from within his own party that the vote could trigger an early election.
Speaking to reporters in South Korea on Thursday, McGuinty brushed off concerns raised by Government House Leader Steven MacKinnon, who earlier cautioned that the Liberals may not have the numbers to pass their fiscal plan when it’s tabled next week. “I have every confidence that we will pass the budget,” McGuinty said. “We’ll earn the respect and support in the House. It’s a question of negotiations and making sure we reflect the priorities of all members of Parliament.”
McGuinty added that the fall budget will outline a path toward meeting Canada’s new NATO defence spending target of five per cent of GDP by 2035 — a dramatic increase that will form a key part of the fiscal framework.
The Liberals currently hold 169 seats, just short of the 174 needed for a majority, meaning they must secure support from at least one opposition party or count on abstentions to survive the vote. The Conservatives have 144 seats, the Bloc Québécois 22, the NDP seven, and the Greens one.
MacKinnon has been sounding the alarm for over a week, warning that opposition parties may unite to defeat the budget, potentially forcing an election during the Christmas season. Liberal Whip Mark Gerretsen has urged all government MPs to attend the vote, calling it “a matter of confidence.”
Political observers say each opposition party has its own incentives to vote no. Former Conservative campaign manager Fred DeLorey wrote that “every opposition party stands to gain from defeating the budget,” while NDP Leader Don Davies has condemned what he calls an impending “austerity budget” that would “slash vital services.” Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet has issued a list of demands, including higher old age security payments and larger health transfers.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, meanwhile, has stopped short of confirming whether his party will vote against the budget, saying only that Canadians will “judge” the Liberals if they push through “more inflationary spending.”
MacKinnon has accused Poilievre of trying to provoke a “Christmas election” to distract from internal controversies, including his recent comments alleging that former prime minister Justin Trudeau violated the Criminal Code — a claim the RCMP has denied.
Despite the uncertainty, McGuinty struck an optimistic tone, insisting that the government’s spending plan will secure enough parliamentary support to pass and keep Canada’s minority Parliament intact — at least for now.