In a stunning upset, the Conservative party has taken control of the Toronto-St. Paul’s riding, a seat held by the Liberals for over three decades. This victory comes just hours after Canadians experienced disappointment from a Stanley Cup loss on Monday night.
Conservative candidate Don Stewart narrowly defeated Liberal Leslie Church by just 590 votes, marking a significant win for the Conservatives in a Liberal-dominated area.
Following the victory, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre called for a snap election, declaring the result a “shocking upset” and urging Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to hold a “carbon tax election.”
Stewart trailed behind Church for most of the night as votes were meticulously counted, with independent candidates adding to the complexity due to a protest against the first-past-the-post system. Despite the initial lag, Stewart remained optimistic and encouraged his team to stay hopeful as the night progressed.
Both candidates had closed their campaign events earlier, anticipating the prolonged vote count. The tide turned just before 4 a.m. when the final few polls shifted the lead to the Conservatives.
This victory is a monumental achievement for the Conservative party, which has not won a seat in Toronto since 2011. It poses a significant challenge for Prime Minister Trudeau, whose leadership may be questioned following this defeat amid already declining poll numbers.
Political strategist Ginny Roth noted that Conservative success in urban ridings often hinges on the New Democrats drawing votes from the Liberals. However, this byelection saw a direct contest between the Liberals and Conservatives, with the NDP candidate receiving only 11% of the vote. This shift could signal a new strategic dynamic for future elections.
Don Stewart, a financial executive and long-time Conservative organizer, marks his first election win with this result. His close connections to the party, including ties to informal Poilievre adviser Jenni Byrne, played a significant role in his campaign.
Toronto-St. Paul’s, known for its affluent areas, high number of renters, and substantial Jewish community, has been a Liberal bastion under former cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett. However, the Liberals faced significant challenges due to public dissatisfaction with Trudeau’s handling of inflation, housing affordability, and a rise in hate crimes related to the Israel-Hamas conflict.
The Conservatives effectively engaged with the Jewish community, leveraging concerns about antisemitism to galvanize support for Stewart.