TORONTO — Toronto’s mayoral contest is showing signs of tightening, with a new poll putting Mayor Olivia Chow seven percentage points ahead of challenger Brad Bradford as voters increasingly focus on affordability, housing, public safety and traffic.
The latest Liaison Strategies survey shows Chow with 47 per cent support among decided and leaning voters, compared with 40 per cent for Bradford. Former federal cabinet minister Chris Alexander stands at 10 per cent, while three per cent support another candidate.
The seven-point gap is smaller than in Liaison’s Sept. 9 survey, when Chow had 50 per cent support and Bradford 39 per cent — an 11-point difference. Liaison principal David Valentin cautioned that one poll alone does not establish a trend, although the latest numbers show a narrower margin between the two leading candidates.
When undecided voters are included, Chow has the support of 39 per cent of respondents, Bradford 33 per cent and Alexander eight per cent, while 17 per cent remain undecided.
The regional numbers reveal significant differences across Toronto. Among decided and leaning voters, Chow leads Bradford 46 per cent to 41 per cent in North York and 46 per cent to 43 per cent in Scarborough.
Chow’s strongest showing is downtown, where the poll places her at 60 per cent compared with Bradford at 27 per cent. Bradford, meanwhile, leads in Etobicoke with 54 per cent support compared with 33 per cent for Chow. Liaison cautions that these regional results are based on smaller samples and therefore carry larger margins of error.
The findings follow a recent Mainstreet Research survey that also reported a single-digit gap. That poll placed Chow at 46 per cent and Bradford at 38 per cent among decided and leaning voters.
Affordability appears to be a major concern heading into the Oct. 26 municipal election. When respondents were asked without being given a list of choices to identify the issue most important to their vote, 23 per cent named cost of living.
Housing affordability followed at 19 per cent, crime and public safety at 17 per cent, and traffic and congestion at 13 per cent. Taken together, cost of living and housing affordability were the first response of 42 per cent of those surveyed. Seven per cent identified property taxes as their leading concern.
Those priorities also vary across the city. Housing affordability was the most frequently identified issue downtown, while cost of living ranked first in North York. In Etobicoke, cost of living, traffic and congestion, and crime and public safety were all prominent concerns.
Chow’s job approval remains above her disapproval rating, with 52 per cent approving of her performance as mayor and 42 per cent disapproving. Six per cent were unsure.
Bradford was viewed favourably by 33 per cent of respondents and unfavourably by 37 per cent, while 19 per cent said they were unfamiliar with him.
Toronto residents are also almost evenly divided over the direction of the city. Forty-seven per cent said Toronto is moving in the right direction, while 46 per cent said it is moving in the wrong direction.
Liaison Strategies surveyed 1,000 Toronto residents from Sept. 19 to 20 using interactive voice response technology and random-digit dialing of landline and cellular phones. The results were weighted using 2021 Census benchmarks.
The overall survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Margins of error are higher for regional and other subsamples.