‘It’s a Two-Party Consolidation,’ Says Pollster Nik Nanos
The 2025 federal election is rapidly shaping into a classic two-party showdown.
On Day 11 of the campaign, a new Nanos Research rolling poll shows Mark Carney’s Liberals holding steady with a commanding 8-point lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives — 45 per cent to 37 per cent.
“This is a two-party consolidation compared to past elections,” said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research. “It’s redefining the election landscape and putting immense pressure on smaller parties.”
Poll Snapshot (April 1 – Nanos Three-Day Rolling Average)
- Liberal Party: 45%
- Conservative Party: 37%
- NDP: 9%
- Bloc Québécois: 5%
- Green Party: 2%
- People’s Party of Canada: 1%
Regional Breakdown: Liberals Dominate Outside the Prairies
Carney’s Liberals are leading in every major region—except the Prairies, where Poilievre’s Conservatives remain dominant:
- Ontario: Liberals 50% | Conservatives 38%
- Quebec: Liberals 49% | Conservatives 21%
- Atlantic Canada: Liberals 64% | Conservatives 27%
- The Prairies: Conservatives 59% | Liberals 24%
“This week we saw a notable shift in Ontario—Canada’s biggest electoral prize,” said Nanos. “That momentum is helping the Liberals surge nationally.”
Preferred Prime Minister: Carney Leads
The Liberals’ edge isn’t just on party lines—Carney is also the top pick for prime minister:
- Mark Carney: 49%
- Pierre Poilievre: 34%
- Jagmeet Singh: 5%
Gender Divide: Women Fuel Liberal Support
Support for the Liberals skews significantly among women:
- 52% of women say they would vote Liberal
- 29% of women support the Conservatives
- Among men:
- 38% back the Liberals
- Conservatives trail closely
As the race intensifies and the focus narrows on the top two contenders, smaller parties are increasingly pushed to the sidelines. With only nine per cent support for the NDP, the latest polling highlights what’s at stake for Canadians choosing who will steer the country through growing global instability.
Expect more exclusive daily polling from CTV News and The Globe and Mail throughout the campaign.