Chandigarh: Pakistan’s nuclear command structure is undergoing a dramatic and unprecedented shift, with Field Marshal Asim Munir—the country’s powerful Army Chief—set to gain exclusive authority over the nation’s strategic and nuclear assets. Analysts warn that this centralization of power could reshape South Asia’s security environment and bring once “unthinkable” scenarios closer to reality.
The development follows the approval of the 27th Constitutional Amendment, passed rapidly by both the Pakistani Senate and National Assembly earlier this week and granted presidential assent on Thursday. The amendment places Pakistan’s estimated arsenal of around 170 tactical and strategic nuclear warheads entirely under Munir’s direct control while stripping civilian institutions of any remaining oversight. It also grants Munir lifetime immunity from prosecution, further consolidating his influence over the state and its military machinery.
The speed and ease with which the amendment cleared parliament underscores Munir’s extraordinary clout within Pakistan’s political landscape.
A Military Worldview Intertwined with Faith and National Identity
A former intelligence chief steeped in the conservative ethos of Pakistan’s Army, Munir frequently describes Pakistan as a “fortress of Islam,” blending religious conviction, nationalism and military pride. This worldview is expected to shape his approach to nuclear command and control—raising concerns that theological beliefs and strategic decision-making may increasingly intertwine.
Under Munir’s influence, battlefield weapons such as the Nasr tactical missile system are viewed not simply as deterrents but as “equalisers” intended to neutralize India’s conventional military advantage. Long-range nuclear systems—including the Shaheen-III and Ababeel—are framed as tools of punitive dominance, capable of imposing unacceptable costs on India in the event of conflict.
Such thinking reflects a longstanding Punjabi-led military doctrine that embraces high-risk nuclear brinkmanship. Within this mindset, mutually assured destruction is not seen as a restraint but as leverage in a strategic contest with India—one in which Pakistan, according to this belief system, would somehow emerge intact even after initiating or escalating a nuclear exchange.
The Punjabi Military Establishment: Dominant and Deeply Entrenched
Since Independence, Pakistan’s Punjabi elite—rooted in cultural notions of daleri (valour), ghairat (honour) and badla (revenge)—has dominated the country’s military, political and bureaucratic institutions. Their worldview continues to shape nuclear and strategic policy, especially after Pakistan’s 1998 nuclear tests that led the Army to formalize a first-use nuclear doctrine to counter India’s superior conventional capabilities.
Unlike India’s declared no-first-use stance, Pakistan’s posture relies heavily on ambiguity and the threat of early use—an approach that has historically succeeded in deterring Indian retaliation, including after the 2008 Mumbai attacks and during recent flare-ups such as Operation Sindoor, when the United States reportedly cited nuclear escalation risks in urging restraint.
With Munir now positioned to control all strategic assets single-handedly, that doctrine of nuclear intimidation is expected to harden even further.
A Single Commander, a High-Risk Moment
By concentrating nuclear authority in one individual—particularly one known for his ideological certitude—Pakistan’s deterrence doctrine becomes a far more precarious enterprise. The risk is not limited to top-level decision-making: field-level commanders within Pakistan’s nuclear establishment increasingly view themselves as defenders of faith as much as military officers, potentially interpreting battlefield developments through a moral or religious lens.
Former U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates once warned that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is “safe—until it isn’t,” noting that the greatest danger lies not in theft but in command decisions made under stress. That warning resonates sharply today.
In any future confrontation—whether triggered by misread intelligence, broken communications, or rapid battlefield escalation—the threat of a catastrophic miscalculation looms large. A single tactical strike, a mistaken signal, or an impulsive response could unleash a nuclear spiral with devastating humanitarian, environmental and geopolitical consequences.
A Region on Edge
With Pakistan’s nuclear weapons soon to be fully under Asim Munir’s authority, the strategic calculus in South Asia has entered its most volatile phase in decades. The centralization of power, combined with a doctrine that prizes aggression, religious symbolism and nuclear brinkmanship, dramatically increases the risk of misjudgment.
As Pakistan formalizes the Army’s supremacy over its nuclear architecture, experts warn that “the unthinkable” is no longer distant. It is closer than ever—resting on the instincts and worldview of a single commander whose decisions could determine peace or catastrophe for the entire region.