With the U.S. presidential election set for November 5, 2024, the political landscape has shifted significantly following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race in July. Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, setting the stage for a rematch of 2020’s contenders, but now with Harris in the spotlight against former President Donald Trump. As the election draws nearer, the key question remains: will the U.S. see a second Trump term or its first woman president?
National Poll Trends
Before Biden’s exit, polls consistently showed him trailing Trump. Kamala Harris, who wasn’t yet an official candidate, also appeared to lag slightly in early hypothetical matchups. However, after officially launching her campaign, Harris quickly gained momentum, establishing a narrow lead in the national polling averages over Trump.
Currently, Harris holds a small but consistent edge, maintaining around 47% of national support, according to a combination of polling data. Her numbers peaked during the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where she delivered a keynote speech on August 22. Meanwhile, Trump has remained steady with approximately 44% support, even following the endorsement of former independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy in late August.
Battleground States: Where the Election is Won
Despite Harris’ edge in national polls, the U.S. election outcome is determined by the Electoral College. This means the real battle will unfold in a handful of key swing states. Currently, polling data from these battlegrounds suggest a razor-thin margin between Harris and Trump.
Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—once Democratic strongholds before flipping to Trump in 2016 and returning to the Democrats in 2020—are among the most closely watched states. The latest polls show less than a one-percentage-point difference in some of these areas, making the outcome highly unpredictable. Pennsylvania, in particular, with its substantial electoral votes, is expected to be crucial for either candidate’s path to the 270 votes required for victory.
The Uncertainty of Polling
While polling offers insights, it’s important to remember the unpredictability of U.S. elections, especially when polls are this close. Both in 2016 and 2020, polls underestimated Trump’s support, and polling organizations have since tried to refine their methods to more accurately capture voter sentiment. Still, the challenge remains in predicting voter turnout and navigating other unforeseen variables leading up to election day.
As the race tightens, all eyes will be on these battleground states and major campaign events, including debates and endorsements, which could still sway voters before the final ballots are cast.
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