Washington— The United States is facing a sharp drop in tourism revenue as Canadians increasingly choose to stay home or vacation elsewhere, with the U.S. Travel Association estimating a $5.7 billion (USD) loss in international tourism spending this year.
According to the report, the decline stems largely from a continuing plunge in visits from Canadian travellers, who have traditionally made up the largest group of international tourists to the United States. The number of Canadians travelling south has dropped dramatically since President Donald Trump returned to office, reignited a trade war with Canada, and repeatedly referred to it as the “51st state.”
Recent figures show that for September 2025, Canadian air travel to the U.S. fell 27%, while land travel plunged 35% compared with the same month last year.
“Tourism is a labour-intensive industry and a major employer in many states,” said Usha Haley, professor of management at Wichita State University. “The reduced occupancy in hotels will impact labour demand and tax collection, which in turn affects municipal finances.”
The United States has historically enjoyed a travel trade surplus, but the continuing decline in visitors has reversed that trend. The Travel Association forecasts a record $70 billion U.S. travel trade deficit for 2025, as more Americans travel abroad than foreign tourists visit the country.
President Trump, asked about the slump in Canadian travel during an October appearance alongside Prime Minister Mark Carney, downplayed the issue, saying, “There’s still great love between the two countries,” and predicted the problem would “get worked out.”
However, relations have only worsened since then. Trump recently cut off trade talks with Canada following an Ontario anti-tariff ad campaign and has threatened additional tariffs on Canadian goods.
For many Canadians, that’s reason enough to vacation elsewhere. Toronto snowbird Rena Hans, who owns a condo in Florida, says she’s boycotting the U.S. entirely. “Why would I want to give money to a country whose president has said he wants to annex mine?” she said. Hans plans to spend the winter in Costa Rica and Turks and Caicos, followed by trips to China and Taiwan.
A recent Angus Reid poll backs up her sentiment: 70% of Canadians say they are uncomfortable travelling to the U.S. this winter, citing political tension, border security concerns, and a desire to “stand up for Canada.”
Among new deterrents is a registration rule introduced in April requiring foreigners, including Canadians staying over 29 days, to register with U.S. authorities — a process involving fingerprinting, photographing, and a $30 fee. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security says the rule is part of Trump’s broader security agenda.
U.S. border states are already feeling the pinch. Regions such as Buffalo, Seattle, and Upstate New York have launched special campaigns offering discounts to woo Canadians back. The latest, Discover Kalispell in Montana, is promoting a Canadian Welcome Pass, with local hotels and restaurants offering up to 26% discounts through January 2026.
“We’ve missed them,” said Diane Mettler, executive director of Discover Kalispell. “For years, Montana and Alberta have had a close relationship — we just wanted to give Canadians a little incentive to return.”
Still, experts say it may take more than deals to restore Canadian confidence. The U.S. Travel Association hopes next year’s FIFA World Cup and America’s 250th anniversary celebrations will help turn things around — but until relations thaw, the outlook remains chilly for cross-border tourism.