OTTAWA — Former Canadian diplomats are warning that any move by the United States to forcibly remove Cuba’s communist government could place Canada in a far more serious geopolitical dilemma than it faced following U.S. military action in Venezuela.
As Ottawa issues travel advisories citing shortages of food, fuel, medicine and ongoing power outages in Cuba, two former Canadian ambassadors say Global Affairs Canada is likely preparing contingency plans for potential U.S. escalation — including economic blockades or direct intervention.
“Canada, more than probably any other nation, is caught in a vise grip,” said Mark Entwistle, Canada’s ambassador to Cuba from 1993 to 1997, noting Ottawa’s long-standing diplomatic relationship with Havana and its simultaneous dependence on stable trade relations with Washington.
The warnings come amid rising tensions following recent U.S. actions in Venezuela and a new American national security strategy asserting greater control over the Western Hemisphere. Senior U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have openly suggested that Cuba could be the next target for regime change.
Former ambassador Matthew Levin said Cuba’s government is unlikely to collapse quickly, as the population has endured decades of scarcity. However, he cautioned that widespread instability could put thousands of Canadian tourists at risk, requiring major consular intervention.
Canada is Cuba’s second-largest source of foreign direct investment, particularly in tourism and mining, and maintains a policy of “constructive engagement” — sharply contrasting with decades of U.S. sanctions.
Experts warn that further U.S. pressure, including restrictions tied to Venezuelan oil supplies, risks deepening humanitarian suffering while forcing Canada into difficult choices between its diplomatic principles, humanitarian responsibilities and critical trade negotiations with the United States.