Donald Trump’s looming tariffs on India, set to hit next month, could boomerang on the U.S. healthcare system. India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal jetted to the U.S. unannounced, racing to broker a trade deal and shield India’s pharmaceutical exports from the fallout.
The U.S. leans on India for nearly half its generic drugs—cheap alternatives that filled nine in 10 prescriptions and saved $219 billion in 2022, per IQVIA. But experts warn these tariffs could choke supply, spike prices, and leave the uninsured reeling. Yale’s Dr. Melissa Barber told the BBC it’ll “worsen demand-supply gaps,” hitting the poorest hardest.
Indian pharma giants like Sun Pharma and Cipla are rattled. Sun’s chairman, Dilip Shanghvi, dismissed relocating to the U.S., saying manufacturing there costs too much. With tariffs already jacking up Chinese raw materials by 20%, adding levies on India’s $12.7 billion drug exports could sting both nations.
Could India dodge the blow? Expert Ajay Bagga says slashing its own pharma tariffs—negligible at $0.5 billion in U.S. imports—might cool tensions. The Indian Pharmaceutical Alliance agrees, pushing for zero duties to sidestep retaliation. But that’s a tough sell for India’s trade playbook.
As talks simmer, ex-U.S. trade rep Mark Linscott predicts short-term pain but a deal by fall. For now, the stakes are sky-high—U.S. patients face pricier pills, while India’s drug industry, a jobs juggernaut, braces for impact.