U.S. President Donald Trump has once again asserted that he forced peace between India and Pakistan by threatening to cancel trade deals — this time enlarging his tally to eight downed aircraft during the May 2025 skirmish between the nuclear-armed neighbours.
Speaking at the America Business Forum in Miami, Trump recounted that he was in the midst of trade negotiations with both nations when he “read on the front page… that they were going to war. Seven planes were shot down, and the eighth was badly wounded. Eight planes were shot down essentially.” He said that he told both governments: “I’m not going to make any trade deals with you if you’re at war with each other.”
Trump said his threat prompted the two countries to cease fighting and resume trade discussions: “I said, ‘Thank you. Let’s do trade.’ Isn’t that great?” he told the cheering crowd.
but the claim is widely contradicted by defence analysts and the governments involved.
During the May 2025 outbreak of hostilities, India launched air- and missile-strikes on Pakistani territory—an operation dubbed “Operation Sindoor”—which triggered aerial engagements. Pakistan claimed to have shot down six Indian jets, including Rafales and MiG-29s. India did not confirm that figure, but acknowledged aircraft losses and allowed analysts to estimate that around four Indian aircraft were downed.
Military researchers caution that the total number of aircraft lost on both sides remains opaque. Neither Indian nor Pakistani officials have confirmed the “eight jets” tally that Trump cites.
Indian analysts argue that the June 2025 cease-fire, reached on 10 May, was the result of diplomatic and regional pressures—not a personal threat from the U.S. leader.
One defence expert noted:
“Pakistan claims large numbers; India confirms some losses. The figure eight appears to be rhetorical inflation rather than verified fact.”
Meanwhile, India’s government expressed frustration with the Trump narrative, saying Washington’s role was marginal and bilateral negotiations drove the truce.
Trade experts also say the idea that Canada-style trade leverage brought India and Pakistan to the table is not substantiated. Analysts say India’s and Pakistan’s decisions were largely driven by domestic military pressure, diplomatic entanglements, and a mutual desire to avoid uncontrollable escalation.The episode highlights the broader risk of political leaders overselling military or diplomatic achievements — especially in volatile regions. For now, the facts suggest a much smaller scale of aircraft losses and a more complex path to peace than Trump’s version.