Thu. Jul 18th, 2024

Trudeau Liberals Close Polling Gap as Poilievre Conservatives’ Lead Shrinks to 12 Points: Nanos

Recent tracking data from Nanos Research reveals a noteworthy development in Canadian politics as the federal Liberals make strides in narrowing the gap with the Conservative Party. Formerly enjoying a substantial 20-percentage point lead, the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, now find their advantage trimmed to a 12-point margin, according to the latest figures.

Since September, the Conservatives have maintained a comfortable lead over the Liberals, peaking at nearly 20 percentage points just a month ago, with 42.8% support compared to the Liberals’ 23.8%. However, the most recent Nanos ballot tracking paints a different picture, with the Conservatives now polling closer to 38% while the Liberals stand at 26%.

Founder of Nanos Research, Nik Nanos, commented on the shifting dynamics, noting a slight negative pressure on the Conservative numbers and acknowledging some movement in the political landscape. Despite this adjustment, the Conservatives remain in the “driver’s seat” with a 12-point lead. However, Nanos underscored the need to monitor whether this new margin becomes the norm.

Notably, the decline in the Conservative lead coincides with a drop in support for the third-place NDP, which now stands at 19%, down from 21% at the start of March.

The evolving political landscape extends to Quebec, where Nanos highlighted intriguing developments. While the Bloc Quebecois has seen a resurgence with 39% support in the province, potentially drawing from both Liberal and Conservative bases, Poilievre’s efforts to court Quebec voters haven’t significantly impacted Conservative numbers, which remain in the low teens.

In terms of preferred prime minister, Poilievre’s lead over Trudeau has narrowed, with Poilievre now at 33.4% compared to Trudeau’s 21.5%. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s popularity has also seen a dip, dropping from 17% to 14.8% in the same timeframe.

These recent trends mark a positive turn for the Liberals, following a previous dip in support. As the political landscape continues to evolve, all eyes remain on the upcoming developments and their implications for the upcoming elections.

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