As Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre prepares for a near-certain return to Parliament through an August 18 byelection in Alberta’s Battle River–Crowfoot riding, he’s encountering an undercurrent of separatist sentiment that could complicate his national message. The rural riding, steeped in Conservative tradition and centered on the oil and gas sector, delivered 83 per cent of the vote to the outgoing MP in the last federal election — one of the highest Conservative vote shares in the country. But while political opposition is minimal, local frustrations with federal policy and the state of Confederation are running high.
Poilievre, who was born in Calgary but hasn’t lived in Alberta for over two decades, is seeking to re-enter the House of Commons from a region he once called home. The riding includes the town of Hardisty, a hub for Canada’s energy infrastructure, and many voters remain bitter over the federal government’s past climate and COVID-19 policies. Some continue to display anti-Trudeau signs long after the former prime minister’s departure.
Voices like Jeffrey Rath, a lawyer and spokesperson for the Alberta Prosperity Project, say they aren’t opposed to Poilievre but want answers — especially on issues like equalization, Senate reform, and Canada-U.S. relations. Rath, who has suggested Alberta should consider joining the U.S., accuses Poilievre of trying too hard to court Ontario and Quebec at Alberta’s expense. He warned that the Conservative leader’s failure to take a stronger stand on Western grievances could alienate the province’s independence-minded base. “If you can’t say you’re going to fight against equalization, then you don’t belong in Alberta,” Rath said. “Get the hell out. We don’t want you anymore.”
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has acknowledged a rise in separatist sentiment, with a recent poll suggesting support for independence sits around 30 per cent. Though not a political threat in this byelection, Rath says voters are looking for more than slogans. He criticized Poilievre’s resistance to changing supply management and said his perceived distance from former U.S. President Donald Trump is another sore point among pro-energy voters in the province.
Despite these tensions, Poilievre has been warmly welcomed in towns like Drumheller and Hanna during his campaign appearances, often dressed in Alberta-themed gear. Drumheller Mayor Heather Colberg praised his efforts to engage with voters, saying he understands rural Alberta’s values and isn’t taking his popularity for granted. “He does have some roots,” Colberg said. “We are one of the bluest constituencies in Canada, but he’s not taking that lightly, and that’s huge.”
While Poilievre says he opposes Alberta separation, he acknowledges the province’s grievances as valid. He has blamed federal climate policies and the cancellation of pipeline projects like Northern Gateway and Energy East for fuelling Western alienation. “Albertans have the right to be frustrated,” he recently told reporters. “They deserve to be honoured for the immense contributions they make to this country. I will be a unifier.”
Michael Solberg, a conservative strategist, said Alberta’s separatist movement poses no serious electoral risk to Poilievre in this race. He believes Poilievre’s deep ties to the Reform Party’s “the West wants in” philosophy position him well to address concerns about fairness from Ottawa. Solberg called the byelection “a cakewalk” and predicted a landslide win, despite what he sees as separatism being “more bark than bite.”
Still, observers note Poilievre will need to walk a fine line: win over a disillusioned base in Alberta while maintaining a national platform that appeals to broader Canadian voters — without getting dragged too deep into the independence debate.