As Members of Parliament prepare to return to the House of Commons this week, Canadians can expect a high-stakes fall session dominated by fiscal policy, public safety legislation, and renewed political rivalries.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first full budget looms large on the agenda after its delay earlier this year. Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne confirmed the fiscal plan will be tabled in October, outlining the true size of Canada’s deficit, new defence spending, and departmental cuts. Carney has pledged to split the budget into capital and operational spending, promising to balance operations within three years despite rising costs from U.S. tariffs.
“Canadians will see a budget that invests where needed but exercises discipline where possible,” Carney said Sunday, hinting the deficit will surpass last year’s figure of $42.2 billion.
Trade, Tariffs, and Tensions
Carney is expected to face fierce questioning over stalled trade talks with U.S. President Donald Trump, whose tariffs have pushed Canada toward recession and hit steel, aluminum, and auto sectors hard. The PMO says Carney remains in “close contact” with Trump, recently removing counter-tariffs to advance negotiations.
Meanwhile, tensions with China over canola and seafood exports continue to put pressure on Prairie farmers and Atlantic fishers.
Poilievre Returns to the House
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is back in his seat after winning a summer byelection in Alberta. His first question period face-off with Carney is expected to set the tone for the fall.
Poilievre has promised a “new spirit of co-operation,” pledging to support constructive government measures while proposing Conservative solutions to affordability and crime.
Competing Bail Reform Bills
Both Liberals and Conservatives plan to table bail reform legislation this fall, setting up a potential policy clash over public safety.
Poilievre’s bill will seek to make bail harder to obtain for repeat offenders and those accused of violent crime, while Carney’s government is drafting its own measures aimed at targeting organized crime. The minority Liberals will need support from the Bloc, NDP, or Greens to pass their version.
Minority Government Maneuvering
With only 14 more seats than the Conservatives, the Liberals face another season of careful negotiation. The Bloc Québécois and NDP have signalled they will evaluate bills on a case-by-case basis, with no supply-and-confidence agreement in place.
The government survived its first confidence vote in the spring with the passage of the throne speech but will face another key test when the budget comes to a vote in October.