For the first time, Ottawa has given a clear timeline for updating its climate strategy, with federal officials confirming a revamped plan will be tabled before December. The commitment comes as pressure mounts on Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government to prove it can still meet emissions reduction targets set under the Paris Agreement.
Assistant Deputy Minister Alison McDermott told MPs at a House environment committee meeting Monday that her department is finalizing revised projections using the latest data. “The work is ongoing and we hope that we’ll have the new projections before the update, which is due in December,” she said.
The pledge follows weeks of speculation over whether Ottawa will stick to the targets enshrined in law in 2021: cutting emissions 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 and 45 to 50 per cent by 2035. Since Carney’s rise to power, Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin has avoided confirming those thresholds, hinting instead at adjustments “in the evolving global and economic context.”
The uncertainty has drawn sharp criticism. Bloc Québécois MP and former Greenpeace activist Patrick Bonin accused Ottawa of “moving backwards” on climate. He pressed officials on whether Canada might weaken its legally binding targets—something McDermott suggested the Paris Agreement does not allow. “The international regulations were not created to make it easy for countries to back down on their ambitions,” she said.
The backdrop is politically charged. Ottawa recently scrapped the consumer carbon price and paused the electric vehicle mandate, while reports suggest the planned emissions cap on oil and gas could be softened. A Canadian Climate Institute analysis already warns Canada is off track, projecting a 34 per cent reduction by 2030 with current measures.
McDermott admitted department staff feel “challenged” by these policy shifts in a tight fiscal environment but emphasized the ministry’s role remains critical, especially “in a world where we have an administration in the U.S. that is not particularly committing to fighting climate change.”
The timing of the update is notable: Ottawa’s revised plan is expected just days before COP30 opens in Brazil this November, where countries will showcase their climate commitments on the accord’s 10th anniversary.
Carney, meanwhile, sought to reassure global partners in a speech at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, touting Canada’s “fiscal capacity to act decisively” and promising new infrastructure and critical mineral projects under Bill C-5 every four months.
With an election year approaching, the December climate plan will be a major test of whether Carney can balance domestic political divides, economic pressures, and international expectations—while keeping Canada’s green credibility intact.