Employers Should Prepare for Fewer Temporary Workers and More Provincial Nominees
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) is expected to unveil Canada’s 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan by November 1, 2025, outlining the country’s immigration targets for the next three years. The plan will serve as a critical roadmap for both policymakers and employers as Canada seeks to balance its labour needs with growing concerns over housing and infrastructure pressures.
According to insights from MLT Aikins LLP, the upcoming plan will likely continue the government’s recent trend of moderating overall immigration growth while emphasizing economic migration streams and regional distribution through the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP).
Stabilizing Permanent Residency Targets
The number of new permanent residents is expected to stabilize at no more than 416,500 in 2026, maintaining a 20% reduction from 2023 levels. This move signals Ottawa’s intent to manage population growth more carefully while ensuring pathways for skilled workers remain open.
Expanding Express Entry and Provincial Nominee Programs
The Express Entry system is projected to admit roughly 124,680 applicants under the Federal Economic Priorities and In-Canada Focus categories — prioritizing in-demand professions, French-speaking applicants, and those already living in Canada on valid temporary status.
Meanwhile, the Provincial Nominee Program is set for expanded quotas, reversing last year’s cuts. Provinces such as British Columbia, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and Labrador, and New Brunswick have successfully negotiated larger allocations, a development that will help address regional labour shortages and empower provinces to attract immigrants who match local workforce needs.
Reducing Temporary Resident Numbers
One of the most significant shifts in the new plan will be a continued reduction in temporary residents, with the government aiming to bring their share of Canada’s total population below 5% by the end of 2026. This aligns with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent statements that Canada must “get immigration under control” to ensure sustainable growth and better integration for newcomers.
While the policy may ease strain on housing and services, it could also challenge industries that rely on temporary workers — particularly hospitality, construction, and agriculture — by tightening access to short-term labour.
Continued Focus on Francophone Immigration
IRCC is expected to maintain and expand its focus on Francophone immigration, building on new French-language pathways and category-based selection draws introduced in recent years. These initiatives aim to strengthen French-speaking communities across Canada, especially outside Quebec.
Implications for Employers
For employers, the anticipated rise in provincial nominee allocations could open new hiring opportunities across Western and Atlantic Canada, allowing businesses to better align recruitment with local needs. However, the reduction in temporary resident admissions could create immediate staffing challenges in sectors dependent on seasonal or short-term workers.
MLT Aikins notes that its immigration team will continue to monitor the policy rollout closely and advises employers to begin strategic workforce planning based on these expected changes.
The 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan marks a pivotal moment for Canada’s immigration framework — one that seeks to strike a delicate balance between economic necessity, population growth, and public confidence in the system.