With a high-stakes budget vote set for Monday, the federal Liberal government says it is fully prepared to head into an election if the minority Parliament rejects its fiscal plan. Government whip Mark Gerretsen said Sunday that the party is “ready for an election,” even as it continues last-minute outreach to opposition parties in hopes of avoiding one.
Gerretsen, speaking on Rosemary Barton Live, said the Liberals have engaged all opposition leaders to understand their concerns, but acknowledged the vote remains uncertain. The Liberals hold 170 seats, including the Speaker, and would need 172 votes if all MPs are present. The Speaker votes only in the event of a tie.
Both the Conservative Party and the Bloc Québécois have already confirmed they will vote against the budget. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has vowed unanimous opposition, and Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet has signalled his caucus sees no path to supporting the fiscal package. Their combined votes leave the Liberal government short of a majority, placing the balance of power in the hands of the NDP, which holds seven seats, and Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, currently the only Green MP in the House.
May said Sunday she remains “a no for now,” citing insufficient climate measures in the budget. She confirmed she has been in discussions with cabinet ministers and staff in the Prime Minister’s Office but has not been persuaded to support the bill. While she acknowledged Canadians do not want to return to the polls, she said she does not believe abstaining aligns with her responsibilities as an elected MP.
If May voted in favour, the total would rise to 170 — still short of the two additional votes required. The NDP has not publicly committed to a position, and could prevent an election either by voting with the government or by strategically abstaining. Abstentions by even a handful of opposition MPs would lower the threshold needed for the budget to pass, allowing parties to oppose the bill in principle while avoiding the political risks of triggering an election.
The Liberals, who have emphasized that all their MPs will be present for the vote, say they do not believe Canadians want another campaign but maintain they are prepared if Monday’s confidence vote leads there. The budget already cleared one confidence test earlier this month, but Monday’s vote is decisive. If it fails, the government will fall and Canadians could be heading into an election within weeks.