The Ford government’s plan to expand Ontario’s alcohol marketplace, allowing beer, wine, and ready-to-drink beverages in corner stores and other retailers, could cost the province an estimated $1.42 billion, according to a report by Ontario’s Financial Accountability Office (FAO).
The report, released Monday, highlights that $600 million of the projected cost stems from accelerating the timeline for the marketplace expansion, which began in 2024.
Breaking down the total estimated cost, the FAO report identified:
- $489 million in financial support to Ontario’s wine industry and Brewers Retail Inc., the operator of The Beer Store.
- $1.3 billion in reduced tax revenues from beer, wine, and spirits.
- $14 million in additional expenses.
These costs are partially offset by an anticipated $353 million increase in the Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO)’s net income, driven primarily by increased wholesale activities.
The report notes that the final cost could vary depending on consumer and retailer responses to the expanded alcohol marketplace.
- If per-capita alcohol consumption increases, the cost could decrease.
- If more grocery and convenience stores join the market or if consumers quickly shift their purchasing habits, the cost could climb higher.
The FAO estimates that total financial costs could range from $529 million to $1.9 billion by the end of 2030.
The expansion includes significant support for Ontario’s wine industry and The Beer Store. However, it also results in reduced tax revenues from alcohol sales, raising questions about the long-term financial impact of this policy on the province’s budget.
The Ford government has touted the initiative as a move toward increasing consumer convenience and providing greater retail choice, but critics argue that the financial burden and reduced tax revenue may outweigh the benefits.
The FAO’s findings underscore the need to closely monitor the rollout and evaluate its economic and social impacts as Ontario continues its push to modernize alcohol sales.