Ontario’s plan to build 1.5 million new homes in a decade continues to drift further out of reach, as the province once again lowered its construction projections in the latest fall economic statement.
For the third consecutive fiscal update, the government has reduced its housing outlook, citing economic headwinds, rising material costs, and market uncertainty. The new forecast now expects just 64,300 homes to be completed in 2025 — a steep drop from the 71,800 projected in the spring budget.
The province’s long-term outlook remains similarly bleak, with 70,200 homes expected in 2026, 79,600 in 2027, and 83,700 in 2028 — still well below the annual pace required to reach the 1.5 million goal originally set by Premier Doug Ford’s government.
Municipal Affairs and Housing Minister Rob Flack has recently appeared to temper expectations for the target, as private-sector forecasters warn of continuing uncertainty tied to tariffs, financing challenges, and construction costs. The government’s report also notes that activity in the condominium sector has slowed from its 2023 peak, though some of that decline has been cushioned by a rise in purpose-built rental projects.
Weaker housing activity is having ripple effects on provincial finances. The statement projects land transfer tax revenue will fall by $576 million compared to the spring forecast, driven by an 8 per cent decline in home resales this year. Resales are expected to rebound by 10.2 per cent in 2026, while the average resale price — down 3.3 per cent this year — is forecast to rise modestly by 2.8 per cent next year.
In an effort to support affordability, the government reaffirmed its HST rebate for first-time buyers on homes priced up to $1 million, though critics argue the cap excludes most properties in the Greater Toronto Area. The measure is expected to cost $35 million this year, rising to $190 million next year and $245 million by 2027.
Despite the rebate, homebuilders say the most effective way to boost supply remains reducing development fees and taxes — a message that underscores Ontario’s widening gap between housing promises and reality.