TORONTO — Ontario’s environment ministry has acknowledged it will miss its 2030 greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target, but Auditor General Shelley Spence says the shortfall is significantly greater than the government admits.
In a report released Wednesday, Spence noted the government projects it will fall short by 3.5 megatonnes of emissions reductions. However, her office found the gap is likely much wider, with current policies overstating progress and relying on discontinued federal programs such as the consumer carbon tax and electric vehicle subsidies.
“To meet the 2030 target now would require the equivalent of taking half of all fossil-fuelled passenger vehicles off Ontario’s roads in just five years,” Spence said at a press conference. “The cost of not reducing emissions far outweighs the cost of reduction. We’re already seeing the effects of climate change and the millions of dollars it is costing Ontarians.”
Environment Minister Todd McCarthy defended the government’s approach, saying results matter more than targets. “We are continuing to meet our commitment to at least try to meet our commitment for the 2030 target,” he said. “But targets are not outcomes. We believe in achievable outcomes, not unrealistic objectives. We cannot put people’s jobs or family budgets at risk based on unattainable goals.”
The auditor general’s report criticized the ministry for failing to publish an updated climate change plan, for not consulting the public on next steps, and for not reporting annually on progress. The ministry has not released a new climate report since 2021, with a 2022 update simply repeating old information. The province’s 2018 emissions plan has also never been formally approved by cabinet.
Spence also flagged concerns with the government’s “car-friendly” policies, such as cutting the gas tax and removing tolls, which may encourage greater use of gas-powered vehicles. Agricultural emissions, projected to decrease in government forecasts, continue to rise in reality due to the lack of mandatory initiatives in the sector.
Between 2005 and 2023, Ontario’s GHG emissions fell 22 per cent, largely due to the previous government phasing out coal-fired power plants and temporary drops in industrial activity during the 2008 recession and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner condemned the Ford government’s record. “I used to say that the government has a made-to-fail climate plan,” he said. “Now they have no damn plan at all.”