Oil prices soared to their highest levels in five months on Monday after the United States launched powerful strikes on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, raising fears of broader regional instability and disruptions to global energy flows.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, briefly surged 5.7% to $81.40 per barrel before settling at $77.38 by early afternoon UAE time. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, rose 0.5% to $74.21 per barrel.
The market reaction follows escalating tensions after Israel initiated attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 13, sparking a retaliatory wave that drew in the United States. President Donald Trump described the resulting damage from U.S. bunker-buster strikes as “monumental,” while Iran vowed to respond “by all necessary means.”
Iranian state media reported that lawmakers have approved a resolution to close the Strait of Hormuz — a vital global shipping lane that handles nearly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply — although a final decision rests with the country’s national security council.
While the move remains symbolic for now, analysts warn that even the threat of closure could send shockwaves through the energy market. “Oil is front and centre this week,” said Josh Gilbert, market analyst at eToro. “If retaliation targets shipping routes or infrastructure, we could see prices climb even higher.”
Iran appears to be ramping up oil exports in anticipation of further escalation, with shipments reportedly up 30–40% since the conflict erupted. Still, experts believe a full blockade of the strait is unlikely. “Strategically, Iran has more to lose than gain,” said Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights, adding that such a move would provoke both Gulf neighbors and key trade partners like China.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called on Beijing to use its influence to prevent Iran from closing the shipping corridor.
While the physical flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz remains uninterrupted, the geopolitical uncertainty has already rattled investors and reignited inflation fears globally. Analysts warn that if oil prices jump and stay around $100 per barrel for an extended period, the knock-on effects could slow global economic growth, delay interest rate cuts, and apply new pressure to production and consumption.
“A weakened Iran with limited options could still go down the path of disruption,” warned Ipek Ozkardeskaya of Swissquote Bank. “This isn’t just about oil — it’s about how a prolonged conflict could reshape economic forecasts worldwide.”