U.S. President Donald Trump has signed an executive order imposing tariffs on Canadian exports, with a 10 per cent tariff on energy and 25 per cent on all other goods, effective February 4, 2025.
According to Statistics Canada, Canadian exports to the U.S. exceeded $594 billion in 2023, with more than 77 per cent of all Canadian exports destined for the U.S. Of these, six major industries contributed over 43 per cent of total exports and will face the biggest financial strain.
1. Non-Oilsands Oil and Gas Extraction
- Total U.S. Exports in 2023: $143 billion
- U.S. Exports as Share of Total Exports: 97%
- Provincial Breakdown:
- Alberta: $121.6 billion
- Saskatchewan: $11.7 billion
- Newfoundland and Labrador: $6.8 billion
- British Columbia: $6.7 billion
- Estimated Additional Cost Due to 10% Tariff: $14.3 billion
2. Automobile and Light-Duty Motor Vehicle Manufacturing
- Total U.S. Exports in 2023: $53 billion
- U.S. Exports as Share of Total Exports: 96%
- Provincial Breakdown:
- Ontario: $52.5 billion
- Quebec: $24 million
- Alberta: $17 million
- Estimated Additional Cost Due to 25% Tariff: $13.3 billion
3. Canadian Petroleum Refineries
- Total U.S. Exports: $23 billion
- U.S. Exports as Share of Total Exports: 85%
- Provincial Breakdown:
- New Brunswick: $10.1 billion
- Alberta: $6 billion
- Quebec: $3.7 billion
- Ontario: $2.4 billion
- Estimated Additional Cost Due to 10% Tariff: $2.3 billion
4. Crop and Animal Production
- Total U.S. Exports: $13.1 billion
- U.S. Exports as Share of Total Exports: 32%
- Provincial Breakdown:
- Ontario: $4.7 billion
- Alberta: $1.9 billion
- Saskatchewan: $1.8 billion
- British Columbia: $1.4 billion
- Quebec: $1.2 billion
- Manitoba: $1.2 billion
- Estimated Additional Cost Due to 25% Tariff: $3.3 billion
5. Aluminum Production and Processing
- Total U.S. Exports: $12.8 billion
- U.S. Exports as Share of Total Exports: 93%
- Provincial Breakdown:
- Quebec: $9.8 billion
- Ontario: $2 billion
- British Columbia: $915 million
- Estimated Additional Cost Due to 25% Tariff: $3.2 billion
6. Aerospace Production and Parts
- Total U.S. Exports: $12.8 billion
- U.S. Exports as Share of Total Exports: 67%
- Provincial Breakdown:
- Quebec: $8.8 billion
- Ontario: $3.2 billion
- Manitoba: $374 million
- Estimated Additional Cost Due to 25% Tariff: $3.2 billion
The U.S. remains Canada’s largest trading partner, with total U.S. exports reaching $594 billion in 2023, while exports to all other countries totaled only $174 billion. The new tariffs will disproportionately impact Canadian industries highly dependent on U.S. trade, particularly oil and gas, automotive, aluminum, and aerospace sectors.
Experts warn that the new trade barriers could lead to higher consumer prices, job losses, and economic slowdowns in affected sectors. Canadian industry leaders and policymakers are currently assessing strategies to mitigate the impact and explore alternative trade partners.