Can he Revive the NDP’s Fortunes Before an Early Election?
The 2025 federal election was once seen as a potential breakthrough for Canada’s New Democratic Party (NDP). With voters demanding change and the Liberal Party leaderless, the political landscape appeared favorable for the NDP to push its progressive agenda. However, recent developments suggest the party is facing significant hurdles.
Polls indicate that support for the NDP is declining, with leader Jagmeet Singh’s favorability ratings plummeting. Internal party memos have warned candidates to prepare for a possible snap election as early as March 10, but the party’s electoral prospects are looking increasingly bleak.
According to CBC’s Poll Tracker, NDP support has dipped below 16%, placing the party a distant third behind the Conservatives and Liberals. Political analysts suggest some NDP supporters are shifting to the Conservatives, drawn by Pierre Poilievre’s appeal to working-class voters. Others are gravitating toward the Liberals, buoyed by excitement around leadership contender Mark Carney.
David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, believes this shift spells trouble for Singh. “Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives have actively courted working-class voters, and it appears to be paying off,” Coletto said. Meanwhile, Carney’s emergence in the Liberal leadership race has captured attention, further squeezing the NDP’s voter base.
Adding to the uncertainty, global events—including U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies—have reshaped the political conversation. “Voters are rallying around the Conservatives or Liberals in a time of crisis,” Coletto noted.
Singh’s personal popularity is also taking a hit. A February survey by Angus Reid found he has the lowest net favorability score among major party leaders and Liberal leadership contenders, with middle-aged and older men especially unfavorable toward him.
“This is a white-knuckle moment for Singh and the NDP,” said Angus Reid Institute President Shachi Kurl. “The numbers are not in their favor.”
Singh, however, remains optimistic. Speaking to reporters, he downplayed the poll numbers. “We’ve seen this pattern before during leadership races. There’s a temporary bump in support for the party picking a new leader, but the real test comes in the election campaign.”
The NDP is betting on a message that asks voters if their lives have improved after nine years of Liberal governance. But convincing disenchanted supporters may not be easy.
One factor hurting Singh is a barrage of negative advertising from the Conservative Party. Brad Lavigne, the NDP’s 2011 campaign manager, believes Singh has failed to counter the attacks effectively.
“Singh has let the Conservatives define him,” Lavigne said, pointing to accusations that the NDP blocked non-confidence votes against the Liberals to protect Singh’s MP pension. “The Conservatives have the money to dictate the terms of the political conversation. Where is the NDP’s counter-message?”
Fundraising remains a significant challenge. The NDP raised $6.2 million in 2024—less than half of the Liberal Party’s total and dwarfed by the $41.7 million amassed by the Conservatives. Without sufficient funds for a strong media presence, the party is struggling to shift public perception in its favor.
Lavigne suggests the NDP has grown complacent due to its supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals, which allowed them to push priorities such as dental care and anti-replacement worker legislation. “It’s time for the NDP to recognize they need to fight harder for visibility,” he said.
Labour unions, traditionally strong NDP allies, are showing signs of discontent. While some, like the United Steelworkers, support the party’s economic policies, others feel betrayed.
Rob Ashton, president of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union, criticized the NDP for voting with the Liberals on labor-related issues, particularly binding arbitration on unionized workers. “Many workers no longer trust the party,” Ashton said. “The NDP needs to get back to its roots—focusing on jobs, wages, and real worker protections.”
Political content creator Steve Boutilier, known for his left-leaning views, echoed this sentiment. In a recent viral video titled Jagmeet Singh Has Failed, he accused Singh of missing a crucial opportunity to redefine the NDP as a strong opposition force.
“There’s deep frustration with Singh’s leadership,” Boutilier said. “He’s positioned better than any NDP leader in recent history, yet he’s failing to capitalize on it.”
The NDP is facing an uphill battle as Canada inches closer to an election. If Singh is to turn the tide, he will need to sharpen his messaging, strengthen his base, and find a way to counter the well-funded Conservative attacks.
While the party recently launched its first pre-election TV ad featuring Singh in a boxing ring, many believe it will take more than symbolic messaging to regain lost ground. With time running out, the question remains: Can Singh and the NDP reclaim their momentum before voters head to the polls?