US President Donald Trump may dismiss Elon Musk’s newly launched “America Party” as “ridiculous,” but analysts say the billionaire’s move could still deal a blow to Republican hopes of maintaining control of Congress—even if the party never wins a seat.
Musk, once a vocal Trump ally, announced his political initiative just days after Trump signed a sweeping domestic policy bill that Musk criticized for its potential to massively increase the national deficit. Although Musk has yet to reveal specific policy proposals, he is reportedly eyeing a select number of House and Senate races in the 2026 midterms, particularly targeting Republicans who backed the bill despite previously championing fiscal discipline.
“Elon Musk’s America Party is a wild card that could upend the midterms in 2026, particularly for Republicans,” said Matt Shoemaker, a political analyst and former Republican congressional candidate. “With bare majorities in Congress, the Republicans should be worried.”
Musk—currently the world’s richest person, with a net worth of $405 billion—has hinted at forming a party for weeks. A recent social media poll he conducted showed 80% support among 5.6 million respondents, suggesting there’s an appetite for a new political alternative, especially among young, tech-savvy voters who see Musk as a visionary outsider.
“Musk’s brand appeals to disaffected independents and younger voters who might otherwise break for Republicans in swing districts,” Shoemaker added.
Despite Musk’s financial power and influence, his recent political spending hasn’t always delivered results. His $20 million backing of a failed Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate earlier this year revealed the limits of money and celebrity in American politics—especially outside his Silicon Valley following.
Moreover, Musk’s favorability ratings have declined since his high-profile role in the Trump administration. According to polling data compiled by Nate Silver, Musk’s net favorability sits at -18.1—worse than Trump’s own rating of -6.6.
Flavio Hickel, a political science professor at Washington College, cautioned that the core of the Republican base remains fiercely loyal to Trump. “The Republican base and MAGA movement are fairly inseparable,” he said. “It’s hard to imagine any political project associated with Musk siphoning off votes from Trump loyalists.”
Historically, third parties have faced steep uphill battles in US elections. Only a few have managed to win Senate