When it comes to China, the word “trust” has always been precarious in India’s vocabulary. Over the decades, the story of India–China relations has been one of optimism turned into betrayal, strategic caution, and uneasy coexistence. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, however, has often gambled on personal diplomacy with Xi Jinping. The record shows this has been a costly miscalculation.
A Friendship That Failed
In the early 1950s, relations began with warmth under the banner of “Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai” (Indians and Chinese are brothers). India even supported China’s sovereignty over Tibet, hoping for peaceful coexistence. But behind the smiles, Beijing was building a road through Aksai Chin—territory claimed by India—without consultation.
This culminated in the 1962 Sino-Indian War, a shocking betrayal that scarred India’s strategic memory. China launched a surprise offensive across the Himalayas, humiliating India militarily and shattering all illusions of friendship. Since then, suspicion has been India’s default posture.
The Border That Never Settled
The war left behind an unsettled boundary—stretching across Ladakh, Arunachal Pradesh, and beyond—that continues to be a flashpoint. Skirmishes have erupted repeatedly:
- 1967 at Nathu La,
- 1987 in Sumdorong Chu,
- 2017 at Doklam,
- and most recently the deadly 2020 Galwan Valley clash, where Indian soldiers lost their lives.
These incidents prove a hard truth: even when dialogue is ongoing, Beijing is willing to test boundaries and escalate tensions.
China’s Strategic Character
China’s behavior in global affairs reveals its true character:
- Opportunism and Surprise – From 1962 to Galwan, Beijing has relied on deception and sudden moves.
- Pakistan Factor – China’s embrace of Pakistan as an “all-weather ally,” symbolized by CPEC, undermines India’s security.
- Global Ambitions – In the South China Sea and Belt & Road, China has shown a pattern of bullying and coercion.
This is not the profile of a partner India can trust.
The U.S. Factor
The United States has stepped into this vacuum of distrust. Washington views China as its chief rival, which has pushed it closer to India:
- Defense sales, military exercises like Malabar, and intelligence sharing strengthen India’s hand.
- The Quad (with Japan and Australia) offers a platform to counter China’s influence.
- On the diplomatic front, Washington consistently supports India’s positions against Chinese aggression.
Still, America’s policies can shift with administrations, reminding India not to depend on Washington alone.
Modi’s Mistake With China
This is where Modi’s approach falters. By visiting China multiple times and hosting Xi Jinping at summits in India, Modi projected an image of friendship—precisely when Beijing was hardening its stance.
- The 2018 Wuhan and 2019 Mamallapuram summits were heavy on optics, light on substance. Within months, Chinese troops were pressing into Ladakh.
- Modi’s emphasis on personal chemistry with Xi signaled softness, not strength, to Beijing.
- Each handshake has bought China more time, while India continues to face hostile troops along its borders.
History shows that Beijing exploits gestures of goodwill to consolidate its position. Modi, by repeating this cycle, risks weakening India’s strategic credibility.
India’s Path Forward
India cannot afford illusions. The only sustainable approach is:
- Strengthening military readiness along the border.
- Diversifying trade to reduce dependence on Chinese imports.
- Deepening ties with the U.S. and Quad allies—without becoming anyone’s pawn.
- Engaging China only on clear terms, with eyes wide open.
Trust in geopolitics is built on power, not smiles. For India, history with China is scarred by betrayal, and Beijing’s character justifies extreme caution. The U.S. offers valuable support, but India must stand on its own feet.
In the long run, Modi will pay the price—politically, financially, and personally—if he continues to ignore the United States and rely on China. Such a miscalculation could damage India’s global standing, weaken its economic future, and tarnish Modi’s own legacy.
The lesson is clear: India must work with the U.S., but never trust China.