Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears poised for a major political rebound, with early vote tallies showing his National Democratic Alliance (NDA) cruising toward a decisive victory in the Bihar state elections.
Bihar, India’s third-most-populous state with nearly 130 million residents, is one of the most influential political battlegrounds in the country. The state elects the fifth-largest bloc of MPs to Parliament, and its political mood often shapes the broader narrative across the Hindi heartland. Retaining control of Bihar is therefore seen as essential for any party seeking long-term national relevance.
On Friday, the Election Commission of India’s trends showed the NDA comfortably ahead of the majority mark of 122 seats, leading in more than 170 constituencies. NDTV placed the alliance even higher, projecting leads in 191 seats, a massive gain of nearly 70 seats from the previous election.
“Bihar’s mandate is clear!” the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) declared on X, celebrating the emerging results. “Development is the new identity. Not jungle raj — the people want good governance!”
For Modi, the result represents a remarkable turnaround. Just last year, after the 2024 national elections, he lost his parliamentary majority for the first time since taking office, forcing him to rely on coalition partners to form a government. Since then, however, the BJP has clawed back political ground, winning several state contests and rebuilding its momentum.
Analysts point to one particularly influential factor in Bihar: women voters. Modi’s September rollout of a ₹75-billion (USD $853 million) cash transfer under an employment initiative for women appears to have dramatically shifted electoral dynamics. Over the past decade, women voters have increasingly outnumbered men at polling stations across India, making them one of the most sought-after voting blocs.
Political strategist Amitabh Tiwari, who traveled across Bihar during the two-phase election on November 6 and 11, said women were the decisive force behind the NDA’s surge.
“It was just the women,” he said, noting that surveys conducted by his agency, VoteVibe, show the NDA securing 48.5% of the female vote, more than 10 points ahead of the opposition.
With major state elections looming next year in Assam, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu — including two states where the BJP has little presence — a commanding victory in Bihar could give Modi’s party the narrative boost it needs heading into another cycle of critical regional battles.