As Canada’s federal party leaders prepare to take the stage for tonight’s highly anticipated French-language debate, a new Nanos Research poll reveals that the Liberals have extended their national lead to eight points over the Conservatives.
The rolling three-day survey ending April 15, conducted for CTV News and The Globe and Mail, places the Liberals at 45 per cent support nationwide, compared to 37 per cent for the Conservatives — a two-point drop from earlier in the week. The New Democratic Party trails with 8 per cent support, followed by the Bloc Québécois at 6 per cent, the Green Party at 2 per cent, and the People’s Party of Canada at 1 per cent.
Regionally, the Liberal Party remains dominant in Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and British Columbia, while the Conservatives hold firm in the Prairies. In Ontario, which carries considerable weight with its large number of seats, the Liberals hold a commanding 21-point lead — polling at 50 per cent compared to the Conservatives’ 39. The NDP is a distant third at 8 per cent.
Quebec continues to show strong support for the Liberals, who now sit at 45 per cent, significantly ahead of the Bloc Québécois at 28 and the Conservatives at 19. According to Nik Nanos, the polling numbers signal a marked shift in Quebec compared to the last federal election, with Liberal gains coming largely at the expense of the Bloc and the NDP.
In the Prairie provinces, the Conservative base remains rock solid. The party commands 63 per cent support in the region, compared to 25 per cent for the Liberals. Meanwhile, British Columbia has flipped in favour of the Liberals, who now poll at 45 per cent, overtaking the Conservatives, who have dropped to 34 per cent.
Atlantic Canada shows the most dramatic gap: 64 per cent of respondents say they support the Liberals, more than double the 29 per cent who back the Conservatives. The NDP remains marginal at just 6 per cent support in the region.
When asked who they would prefer as prime minister, 49 per cent of respondents chose Liberal Leader Mark Carney, while 33 per cent chose Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre — a 16-point advantage for Carney that has held steady throughout much of the campaign.
The gender breakdown offers further insights into party support. A strong majority of women—54 per cent—say they support the Liberals, while just 26 per cent favour the Conservatives. Ten per cent of women say they support the NDP. Among men, the dynamic is reversed, with 49 per cent backing the Conservatives, 35 per cent supporting the Liberals, and 7 per cent backing the NDP.
Age also plays a key role. Younger voters under 35 show a slight Conservative edge over Liberals by a margin of three points. However, among older Canadians aged 55 and above, the Liberals are well ahead, polling at 53 per cent versus the Conservatives’ 32. Among those aged 35 to 54, the two parties are deadlocked at 42 per cent each.
As the campaign enters its final stretch, all eyes now turn to Quebec, where tonight’s French-language debate could prove pivotal for party momentum heading into the final 11 days before the April 28 election.