With just five days left in the federal election campaign, the latest Nanos Research tracking poll shows the Liberals maintaining a six-point national lead over the Conservatives, while key voter groups in British Columbia and among middle-aged Canadians remain in flux.
According to polling conducted from April 19 to 21, the Liberals sit at 43 per cent support nationally, compared to 37 per cent for the Conservatives. The New Democrats trail well behind at 10 per cent, with the Bloc Québécois at six, the Green Party at three, and the People’s Party of Canada at one per cent.
Nik Nanos, chief pollster for CTV News and The Globe and Mail, described two critical demographics — voters aged 35 to 54 and residents of British Columbia — as “absolute toss-ups,” pointing to their volatile and closely split preferences as the campaign nears its conclusion.
Regionally, the Liberals continue to dominate in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. In Ontario, they have surged to 49 per cent support — a 13-point lead over the Conservatives, who stand at 36 per cent. In Quebec, the Liberals are ahead with 39 per cent, followed by the Bloc at 26 and the Conservatives at 24. The Atlantic provinces show even stronger Liberal backing, with 53 per cent compared to 31 per cent for the Tories.
The Prairies remain a Conservative stronghold, where 57 per cent of respondents support Pierre Poilievre’s party, far ahead of the Liberals at 31 per cent. Meanwhile, British Columbia presents a statistical deadlock: both the Liberals and Conservatives are tied at 40 per cent, while the NDP holds 19 per cent.
In terms of leadership preference, Liberal Leader Mark Carney enjoys a comfortable 13-point lead over Poilievre. Carney is the preferred prime minister for 47 per cent of respondents, compared to 35 per cent for Poilievre and just six per cent for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.
Gender continues to play a significant role in voter preference. Women are considerably more likely to support the Liberals, with 49 per cent indicating their backing for Carney’s party compared to just 29 per cent for the Conservatives. Among men, the trend is reversed: 46 per cent favour the Conservatives, while 36 per cent support the Liberals.
Age also reveals stark differences. Younger voters under 35 show a slight Conservative lead, at 40 per cent versus 34 per cent for the Liberals, and 15 per cent for the NDP. Among voters aged 35 to 54, it’s a near-even split, with the Conservatives at 40 per cent and the Liberals at 39. The over-55 age group heavily favours the Liberals, who lead by 20 points over the Conservatives — 52 per cent to 32.
This Nanos survey, based on a rolling three-day sample of 1,308 Canadians, carries a margin of error of ±2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
As Canadians prepare to cast their final ballots, the race appears increasingly shaped by a handful of swing demographics, with much still at play in key battlegrounds across the country.