As the Liberal Party’s leadership race approaches its conclusion, discussions about a potential snap election have intensified. However, current data indicates that both the Liberal Party and the New Democratic Party (NDP) are trailing the Conservative Party in finalizing their candidate nominations, suggesting they may need additional time to prepare for a possible early election.
Conservatives Lead in Nominations
As of February 18, the Conservative Party has nominated 234 candidates, positioning itself ahead in election readiness. Leader Pierre Poilievre’s momentum over the past few years has facilitated the recruitment of a diverse slate of candidates, including individuals from various public offices and business sectors. Jamie Ellerton, founding partner of Conaptus Ltd. and a former Conservative campaign staffer, noted, “A lot of people are stepping up who want to be a part of that change.”
Liberals Face Challenges with Turnover
The Liberal Party has nominated 147 candidates to date. The resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the ongoing leadership race have spurred interest from potential candidates. However, with numerous cabinet ministers and Members of Parliament not seeking re-election, the party faces the challenge of replacing experienced incumbents. Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara and former lead research strategist for Trudeau, highlighted the impact of this turnover, stating that the loss of incumbents can result in a two-to-five percent decrease in support, which could be pivotal in closely contested ridings.
NDP Working to Finalize Candidates
The NDP has announced 143 candidates thus far. Despite having significant influence over the timing of the next election, the party acknowledges the need to expedite its nomination process. Leader Jagmeet Singh emphasized the party’s commitment to readiness, stating, “We will be election-ready when an election comes.” Anne McGrath, the NDP’s National Director, expressed confidence in the party’s ability to field candidates in all ridings, noting that the process is ongoing and that the party has a history of completing nominations in a timely manner.
Greens Aim for Full Slate
The Green Party is in the process of vetting numerous nominees. Co-leader Elizabeth May expressed optimism about the party’s preparations, stating, “We will have a full slate by the writ drop.” She anticipates that the Greens will secure more seats in the upcoming election, attributing this potential success to strong candidates and dedicated teams nationwide.
Across all parties, the emphasis is on thorough vetting to ensure that candidates are well-prepared and free from potential controversies. Arnold pointed out that while finding candidates is feasible, ensuring they are properly vetted is crucial to avoid issues arising from past actions or statements. Parties maintain lists of potential candidates and are prepared to expedite the nomination process as needed, depending on the political climate and election timing.
As the political landscape evolves and the possibility of a snap election looms, parties are intensifying their efforts to finalize candidate selections and ensure readiness for a potential early campaign.