OTTAWA — Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals have scored a decisive political victory, sweeping three federal byelections and strengthening their position in Parliament at a time when Canada is confronting an increasingly difficult trade battle with the United States.
Liberal candidates won all three contests Monday night, taking more than half of the initial vote count in each riding. The most politically significant result came in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, Quebec, where the Liberals captured a seat that had been held by the Conservatives since 2018.
The Conservatives finished a distant third in the Quebec riding, turning what had once been a competitive Conservative stronghold into one of the night’s biggest Liberal victories.
In Toronto’s Beaches—East York riding, Liberal candidate Tanveer Shahnawaz celebrated his victory by telling supporters that it was “a great time to be a Liberal” in Canada.
The results provide a timely political boost for Carney as his government deals with escalating economic tensions with U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration.
Canada ended trade negotiations with Washington on Aug. 21 after talks that had appeared close to producing an agreement on some sectoral tariffs. Instead, both countries have moved toward tariffs and counter-tariffs, creating additional uncertainty for Canadian industries and consumers.
Carney described the byelection results as a vote of confidence in his government’s direction, while saying the Liberals accepted the support of Canadians with humility and determination.
The victory in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord carries particular significance because the Saguenay region is heavily exposed to trade tensions with the United States. Aluminum, forestry and dairy farming are major parts of the local economy, leaving workers and businesses particularly sensitive to tariffs and changes in cross-border trade.
The Liberals selected dairy farmer Daniel Gobeil, a former leader of Quebec’s provincial dairy producers’ association, as their candidate.
After his victory, Gobeil pledged to defend workers in the aluminum and forestry industries while also protecting Canada’s supply-management system for dairy and other agricultural products.
The riding had not elected a Liberal since 2015. Conservative Richard Martel first captured it in a 2018 byelection and subsequently won it several times, including a closely fought contest in the 2025 federal election.
Martel later left the Conservative caucus and accepted an appointment to the Senate, opening the riding for Monday’s byelection.
His departure was part of a broader series of Conservative caucus losses following the 2025 election. Several Conservative MPs, including Chris d’Entremont, Matt Jeneroux, Michael Ma and Marilyn Gladu, crossed the floor, helping transform Carney’s minority Liberal government into a majority.
Political observers had identified Chicoutimi—Le Fjord as an important test of Carney’s political strategy. McGill University political scientist Daniel Béland suggested before the vote that capturing the riding after Martel’s Senate appointment would demonstrate highly effective political positioning by the Liberal government.
The result also prompted Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet to argue that the political contest in Quebec is increasingly between the Liberals and the Bloc rather than the Conservatives.
The Bloc finished second in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, while the Conservatives were pushed into third place.
In Beaches—East York, the New Democratic Party showed signs of recovery following its devastating performance in the 2025 federal election, when it lost official party status in the House of Commons.
NDP Leader Avi Lewis said the party more than tripled its share of the vote compared with the previous federal election and recorded its strongest result in the riding since 2015.
Despite that improvement, however, the New Democrats remained thousands of votes behind the victorious Liberals.
Shahnawaz, the new Liberal MP for Beaches—East York, previously managed the constituency office of former MP Nate Erskine-Smith, who left federal politics in an unsuccessful attempt to pursue the Ontario Liberal leadership.
The Liberals also comfortably retained North Vancouver—Capilano, where Braeden Caley, a former deputy chief of staff to Carney, was elected to replace former cabinet minister Jonathan Wilkinson.
Wilkinson left federal politics to accept a diplomatic posting.
Caley, a longtime Liberal strategist who played an important role in the party’s 2025 federal election campaign, said the byelection victory should not be viewed as a finish line but as a mandate to continue confronting U.S. tariffs, reducing living costs and building more affordable housing.
The three victories strengthen Carney’s parliamentary position ahead of the House of Commons returning on Sept. 21.
The final vote totals are still expected to take several days to confirm, but preliminary results showed Liberal candidates receiving more than 50 per cent of the vote in all three ridings.
The strong Liberal percentages come with one important qualification: voter turnout was below 50 per cent, a common feature of federal byelections.
The political landscape could also shift again soon, with several more byelections expected.
Liberal MPs Steven Guilbeault and Shaun Chen have resigned their seats in Laurier—Sainte-Marie and Scarborough North. NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice is leaving Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie, while Bloc Québécois MP Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay is departing Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton.
Conservative MPs Cathay Wagantall and Larry Brock have also announced plans to step down.
For now, however, Monday night belongs firmly to Carney and the Liberals.
Winning all three byelections, breaking through in a Conservative-held Quebec riding and maintaining more than 50 per cent support in each contest gives the government fresh political momentum.
The bigger question is whether that momentum can survive a prolonged Canada-U.S. trade confrontation and carry into the next round of byelections, when voters will once again have an opportunity to pass judgment on Carney’s government.