Indian Americans are riding high on optimism about India’s future but casting wary eyes at U.S.-India relations under a second Trump presidency, according to the 2024 Indian-American Survey by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and YouGov. Conducted in October with 1,206 respondents, the nationally representative online poll digs into the diaspora’s political pulse amid a rocky yet growing U.S.-India partnership.
Last year’s elections in both nations—and flashpoints like a U.S. indictment of Indian tycoon Gautam Adani and an alleged Delhi-orchestrated assassination plot on American soil—set the stage. With over five million Indian-origin residents in the U.S., the survey probes their takes on Biden vs. Trump, India’s trajectory, and more. Here’s what stands out:
Biden’s handling of U.S.-India ties gets higher marks than Trump’s first term, with a hypothetical Harris presidency outshining a Trump sequel. Party lines split the vote: 66% of Indian-American Republicans back Trump’s record, while only 8% of Democrats agree. Half of Democrats laud Biden, but just 15% of Republicans do. With most Indian Americans leaning Democratic, Biden wins the crowd. Trump and Modi traded praise in February, though Trump jabbed at India’s “big problem” of high tariffs.
A U.S. charge against a former Indian intelligence officer for plotting to kill Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a Sikh separatist, barely registers—only half of respondents know about it. India’s cooperating with the probe, and a narrow majority says neither nation would be justified in such a move. (AFP)
Partisanship colors views: Democrats sympathize more with Palestinians, Republicans tilt toward Israel. Four in 10 say Biden’s too pro-Israel in the Gaza conflict, where Hamas’s 2023 attack killed 1,200 and Israel’s response has claimed over 48,000 lives, per local counts. Ceasefire talks loom in Qatar.
Nearly half (47%) see India on the right track—up 10 points since 2020—and approve of Modi’s leadership. Four in 10 say India’s 2024 election, where Modi’s party lost its majority, boosted democracy. (AFP: A flag-waving fan at “Howdy, Modi!” in Houston, 2019.)
Despite Modi love, half missed the assassination plot news. Co-author Milan Vaishnav blames “selective engagement”—60% track Indian affairs regularly, but many skim headlines via news, social media, or chats. “With U.S. news overload, it’s no shock this didn’t cut through,” he says.
Indian Americans lean Democratic (47%, down from 56% in 2020) and favor Biden or Harris for ties, yet adore Modi’s nationalism. Vaishnav calls it a “where you sit” thing: liberal here, conservative there, shaped by minority/majority status. Trump’s “Howdy, Modi!” cameo? More about Modi than him, with 30% still backing Republicans.
Online news, YouTube, WhatsApp, and TV feed their views, with foreign-born folks more plugged in than U.S.-born kin. Cultural ties endure across generations, blending nuance with diaspora-driven narratives.
The takeaway? Indian Americans juggle pride in India with unease about Trump, their views a mosaic of selective focus and shifting loyalties.