With the 2024 presidential election just a day away, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a razor-thin lead over former President Donald Trump in the final stretch. New polling data released Sunday and Monday shows a neck-and-neck race, making the outcome too close to call and highlighting critical battleground states where both candidates are fighting for every vote.
Key Findings
- HarrisX/Forbes Poll: Harris edges out Trump among likely voters, 49%-48%, with a one-point margin of error.
- PBS News/NPR/Marist Survey: Harris has a four-point lead (51%-47%), while a Morning Consult poll shows a narrower 49%-47% advantage.
- ABC/Ipsos Poll: Harris leads 49%-46%, but her support has decreased from a 51%-47% lead last week.
- Dead Heats: Trump and Harris are tied at 49% in NBC News and Emerson College polls, and the Yahoo News/YouGov survey shows a 47%-47% deadlock.
- Swing States: The race remains wildly unpredictable, with swing states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona up for grabs. Polling averages from the Silver Bulletin show Trump leading in key states, while Harris holds a slim advantage in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Statistical Tie
The HarrisX/Forbes survey underscores the volatility, with 10% of likely voters and 16% of all registered voters still open to changing their minds. Meanwhile, the Economist/YouGov survey shows Harris ahead by two points, but with a significant margin of error, emphasizing the uncertainty of the race.
Electoral College Forecast
FiveThirtyEight’s model projects Trump winning the Electoral College 53 out of 100 times, while Harris wins 47 times. The RealClearPolitics average has Trump up by 0.2 points, while Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin gives Harris a 0.9-point lead.
Shifting Latino Support
Harris leads Trump among Latino voters, but recent NBC News polling indicates her margin is shrinking. The latest data shows 54% support for Harris, compared to 40% for Trump, a significant decline from the 50-point leads Democrats enjoyed in past elections.
Impact of the Debate
Although Harris was widely seen as the winner of the September 10 debate in Philadelphia, her poll numbers have remained largely stable. An ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted after the debate found 67% of voters approved of her performance, compared to 40% for Trump, yet the race remained tight.
Background
Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Biden dropped out on July 21 following a poor debate performance. Biden endorsed Harris, and the Democratic Party quickly rallied around her. Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, while Trump chose Ohio Senator JD Vance. Since then, Harris has boosted Democratic enthusiasm, which now stands at 85%, up from 46% in June.
With just hours to go before Election Day, the outcome remains anyone’s guess, as the nation braces for one of the most fiercely contested races in recent history.