Donald Trump’s tariff war with Canada could sting the U.S. cities that powered his election win, a new Canadian Chamber of Commerce analysis reveals. Released Thursday, it flags San Antonio and Detroit as the most exposed among 41 metro areas hooked on Canadian exports—hinting at a political boomerang for the president.
San Antonio sends nearly half its aerospace, auto, and energy exports to Canada; Detroit, an auto hub, ships 40% north. Both sit in states—Texas and Michigan—that clinched Trump’s November triumph, alongside Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where Milwaukee and Pittsburgh also rank high on the vulnerability list. Kansas City, Louisville, Nashville, Columbus, Chicago, and Cleveland follow—all but Chicago in Trump-backing territory.
The report landed just before Trump’s Wednesday bombshell: a 25% tariff on Canadian autos and parts, effective April 3, piling onto existing duties (25% on most goods, 10% on energy) set to fully bite in April. “This isn’t Canada’s mess alone,” warned Chamber CEO Candace Laing. “These tariffs torch jobs, surrender North America’s auto crown, and gamble with workers’ futures—maybe permanently.”
Canadian leaders predict U.S. consumers will face pricier goods and shrinking job rolls, though Brookings Institution analysis suggests Canada and Mexico, more dependent on U.S. trade, might bleed worse. Trump ties the tariffs to curbing immigration and drugs, while jabbing at trade deficits and floating Canada as the 51st state.
For now, the trade war’s shadow looms largest over the very regions that cheered Trump’s return—testing his gamble in real time.