Doug Ford’s Tories just chalked up their third straight majority in Ontario’s snap election, a $189-million showdown that left the province with more of the same. But beneath the surface, a big question’s brewing: could the Liberals and NDP team up to topple the PC dynasty—or is the game rigged for good?
Ford’s crew snagged 80 of Queen’s Park’s 124 seats with 42.97% of the vote (as of Feb. 28 data), while the Liberals (29.96%) and NDP (18.55%) together pulled 48.51%—enough to hint that a centre-left dream team might’ve sent the Tories packing. Add in the Green Party’s near-5% and two seats, and the math gets even spicier. So, why didn’t the left steal the show? Blame the system—and some stubborn party pride.
The NDP nabbed Official Opposition with 27 seats, but the Liberals, despite raking in over 500,000 more votes provincewide, limped away with just 14. Peter Graefe, a political science guru at McMaster University, says this kind of mismatch has frustrated centre and left-leaning voters screaming for change. “Folks might push harder for proportional representation,” he predicts—a system where seats match votes more fairly, not this first-past-the-post chaos where winners take all.
A Liberal-NDP mash-up sounds like a no-brainer to some—unite the 48.51% and kick Ford to the curb. But Graefe’s not holding his breath. The Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, are flexing a centrist vibe, chasing old-school Tory voters who might’ve drifted right. “Kathleen Wynne leaned left, but Crombie’s pitching a middle ground,” Graefe explains. Meanwhile, the NDP’s vote machine hums efficiently in its strongholds—think urban pockets—while the Liberals eye GTA suburbs they nearly nabbed this time.
The Liberals clawed back from eight seats to 14, reclaiming official party status, and Graefe thinks they’ll keep grinding solo. “They’re gaining ground in popular vote but not seats—the NDP’s just better at winning where it counts,” he says. A merger? Neither side’s rushing to the altar—too much ego, too little overlap in vision.
Ford’s hat trick—his third majority in a row—has folks wondering: stick with the status quo, or shake things up? Could electoral reform level the playing field? Should the Liberals and NDP bury the hatchet for a united front? Or is scrapping first-past-the-post the real fix? One thing’s clear: Ontario’s $189-million gamble didn’t change much—but it’s got everyone talking about what’s gotta give.