A new poll shows that Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives would win another solid majority if an election were held today — yet the controversy surrounding the province’s $2.5-billion Skills Development Fund (SDF) is taking a noticeable toll on public confidence in how the government manages tax dollars.
The survey, conducted Nov. 15 by Pallas Data for The Trillium, polled 1,077 eligible Ontario voters. Among decided and leaning voters, 45% said they would back the PCs, 28% the Liberals, 18% the NDP, 6% the Greens, and 3% another party. That represents a slight uptick from the party’s 2025 election share of 43%.
Skills Fund Scandal Fueling Voter Concern
Despite the PCs’ enduring lead, the poll shows deep unease about the government’s handling of the Skills Development Fund — a controversy that has dominated question period all fall.
Nearly 60% of voters said they are “very” or “somewhat” concerned about how the government has managed the fund, including about four in 10 PC supporters. Similar levels of voters said the issue made them less trusting of the government’s stewardship of public money.
The backlash stems from revelations — first uncovered by The Trillium and later supported by the auditor general’s report — that the labour minister’s office hand-selected certain grant recipients despite lower evaluation scores, bypassing higher-scoring proposals recommended by civil servants. Several funded organizations have ties to PC-connected donors or well-placed lobbyists.
The situation intensified after the government confirmed a forensic audit of one SDF recipient, Keel Digital Solutions, was referred to the OPP. That referral followed public scrutiny over Labour Minister David Piccini attending the Paris wedding of the company’s lobbyist, as well as a past Leafs game in premium seats with one of the company’s directors.
Voters Say Civil Servants — Not Politicians — Should Decide Grants
The poll asked Ontarians who should make government funding decisions:
- 55% said non-partisan civil servants
- 14% said ministers should decide
- 11% said the current system is fine
This finding suggests broad public dissatisfaction with the political involvement revealed in the SDF program.
Election Finance Changes Also Unpopular
In the midst of the SDF fallout, the government has introduced legislation to increase the individual donation limit to political parties from $3,400 to $5,000. The poll found little appetite for the change:
- Only 8% of voters said donation limits should be higher
- 52% said current limits are “about right”
- 25% said the limits should be lower
When told specifically about the bill, 60% of all respondents — including 46% of PC voters — agreed with the opposition’s argument that the increase gives wealthier donors too much influence.
Major Opposition to Tunnel Under Highway 401
The government’s plan to build a multi-billion-dollar tunnelled expressway under Highway 401 also faces stiff resistance.
- 68% of respondents oppose the project
- Only 17% support it
- 59% strongly oppose — including 41% of PC voters
Public opposition has grown slightly since 2024, when 52% strongly opposed the idea.