Kyiv, Ukraine – With speculation intensifying over a possible summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, questions are once again being raised about how the Russia-Ukraine war could come to an end. Despite recent setbacks for Ukraine and Russia’s renewed offensive in the east, international actors are exploring diplomatic off-ramps. Yet, analysts warn that none of the possible endings are clean or without cost.
The idea of a Trump-Putin meeting has been floated repeatedly, and reports suggest that this time, there may be serious interest from both sides. Trump, hoping to bring his personal diplomacy style to bear, appears to believe he can persuade Putin into ending the war face-to-face. Meanwhile, Putin sees value in such a summit—not necessarily to make peace, but to stall for time as Russian troops continue to make incremental gains in the Donbas and Kharkiv regions.
Both sides have rejected previous ceasefire proposals. In May, the United States, Europe, and Ukraine offered an unconditional pause in hostilities—an offer Putin dismissed outright. Since then, his forces have launched a summer offensive targeting key towns in the east, seeking to shift the battlefield reality in Russia’s favor ahead of any serious talks.
So, how might the war actually end? According to analysts, there are five broad scenarios under which the conflict could be resolved—or at least frozen.
The first and most unlikely scenario is an unconditional ceasefire. Despite growing international pressure and new sanctions, Putin has shown no signs of halting his offensive. The Kremlin believes it holds the upper hand and is unlikely to agree to a ceasefire that doesn’t secure Russia’s current battlefield gains. The idea of stopping the war before October, when winter could naturally slow down fighting, seems off the table.
A more plausible scenario is limited progress through diplomacy, where talks don’t end the war but instead agree to resume negotiations later in the year. This could coincide with a military freeze during the winter months. By then, Russia may have captured enough territory to feel confident sitting down at the table. The Kremlin could then use the lull to consolidate gains and even try to influence Ukrainian politics by questioning President Volodymyr Zelensky’s legitimacy due to delayed elections.
Still, Ukraine may yet hold the line. In a third scenario, sustained Western military aid helps Ukrainian forces prevent major territorial losses. The hope here is that U.S. and European support keeps Ukrainian defenses strong enough that Russia cannot deliver a decisive blow. European powers have even discussed deploying a “reassurance force”—NATO troops who would provide logistical support and a deterrent presence in Kyiv and other cities, without direct involvement in combat. If successful, such an effort could allow for a frozen front and space for diplomacy.
However, if American support fades—particularly following a Trump-Putin deal that excludes Kyiv—a collapse in Ukrainian resistance is not out of the question. In this grim fourth scenario, Putin takes advantage of fractured Western unity to launch a broader offensive. European nations may try to help Ukraine, but without U.S. coordination, they could fail to stop Russia from pushing deeper into central Ukraine. If Ukrainian manpower dwindles and political support erodes, cities like Dnipro or even Kyiv could fall back into play. This would be a geopolitical disaster for Ukraine and a major test for NATO’s credibility.
Lastly, and most optimistically for Western strategists, is the potential for Russia’s own collapse. In this scenario, Moscow continues to suffer heavy losses for minimal gain. The cost of war, combined with economic sanctions and growing unrest at home, begins to take its toll. Russia’s elite might grow frustrated with Putin’s refusal to negotiate, and the Kremlin could face internal dissent—much like during the Soviet Union’s drawn-out war in Afghanistan. Financial reserves could deplete, China and India may distance themselves, and cracks in Putin’s authority might widen. A moment of strategic overreach could turn a war of choice into a national crisis for Russia.
While none of these outcomes are ideal for Ukraine, only one—the collapse of Russia’s war effort—offers a true defeat for Moscow and a meaningful shift in European security. And that, analysts warn, is not a scenario likely to emerge from a Trump-Putin handshake alone.
Any lasting resolution will require Ukraine’s inclusion in negotiations, genuine international pressure, and a shift in battlefield momentum. Until then, the war grinds on—brutal, unpredictable, and far from its end.