Recent federal polling data suggests a dramatic and rare shift in voter preferences, with the Liberal Party experiencing a surge in support that has significantly narrowed the once-dominant Conservative lead. Analysts caution, however, that it remains unclear whether these trends will hold.
For the past two years, CBC’s Poll Tracker has consistently shown the Conservatives maintaining a strong lead. However, a recent Ipsos poll conducted between February 21 and 24 now shows the Liberals edging ahead, erasing what was a 26-point Conservative lead just six weeks ago. While the two-point margin remains within the poll’s 3.8% margin of error, it marks the first time in years that Ipsos has shown the Liberals in front.
Polling expert Philippe Fournier of 338Canada.com described the trend as “the steepest curve in favor of the Liberals” that he has seen in Canadian politics. Analysts attribute the shift to three key factors:
- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s decision to step down, which has revitalized interest in the Liberal leadership race.
- Concerns over Donald Trump’s return to power in the U.S., including his tariff threats and comments about making Canada the 51st state.
- A strategic shift in voter support, particularly among those previously aligned with the NDP.
Polling data suggests that the Liberal leadership race is playing a major role in shifting public opinion. A Leger poll from February 21 to 23 found that under Trudeau, the Liberals continue to trail the Conservatives. However, when former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is factored in as the potential new leader, the Liberals pull ahead by two points—though still within the margin of error.
Éric Grenier, a polling analyst with The Writ, noted that even without a new leader, the Liberal Party appears to be benefiting from a “rally around the flag” effect triggered by Trump’s aggressive rhetoric toward Canada.
While Liberal support has rebounded, the New Democratic Party (NDP) is seeing a significant decline. Analysts believe that many former NDP supporters are shifting toward the Liberals, fueling what Fournier calls “strategic voting on steroids.”
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh attempted to reassure supporters, stating that his party remains the best choice for voters concerned about health care and social services. However, analysts say the NDP has lost nearly half of its support base and is now in serious trouble.
Despite the Liberals’ recent gains, polling experts warn that these numbers may not hold, particularly as the leadership race unfolds and the next election campaign takes shape.
Grenier pointed to past political shifts where a new leader initially boosted poll numbers, only for support to collapse during the campaign—as seen with Kim Campbell in 1993 and John Turner in 1984.
“Could the Liberals still blow this? Oh, absolutely they could,” said Fournier. “A bad interview, a single misstep, and this could all revert back.”
With speculation that an election could be called as early as this spring, the coming months will be critical in determining whether the Liberals’ momentum is sustainable or just a temporary bounce.