Polls show Poilievre’s Conservatives maintaining a strong lead, but Liberal support is on the rise
Recent polls suggest the Conservative Party of Canada remains on track to win a majority government if an election were held today. However, Liberal support has increased, narrowing the gap.
- Ipsos (Feb. 6):
- Conservatives: 41% (down 5% since January)
- Liberals: 28% (up 8%)
- CBC Poll Aggregate:
- Conservatives: 43.4% (down 1% since Jan. 27)
- Liberals: 23.4% (up 1%)
According to Lydia Miljan, a political science professor at the University of Windsor, the Liberal leadership race is drawing significant media attention, temporarily boosting their poll numbers.
“They’re getting a lot of airtime and attention, so they’re front of mind,” Miljan explained. She predicts polling will shift again after the Liberals select a new leader to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre is struggling to get media coverage, which could explain the slight dip in Conservative support.
While U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariffs have dominated political discourse, Miljan doesn’t believe they’re hurting Poilievre. However, she noted that Trudeau’s recent speech on counter-tariff measures received positive reactions, which may have temporarily bolstered his image.
“It won’t necessarily help the new Liberal contenders, as they’re trying to distance themselves from Trudeau,” she said.
With an election on the horizon, both Poilievre and the new Liberal leader will face their first national campaign as party leaders, making for a high-stakes showdown.