With U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats looming and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s departure reshaping Canada’s political landscape, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is recalibrating his message to maintain voter momentum.
Sources within the Conservative Party confirm that internal surveys are being conducted to gauge public sentiment and refine Poilievre’s messaging ahead of an anticipated election. Party insiders acknowledge that a potential U.S.-Canada trade war and heightened national unity sentiment may require shifts in strategy to avoid alienating voters focused on economic stability and national security.
Since Trump’s inauguration and his threats of tariffs, Poilievre has adjusted his rhetoric, adopting a strong nationalist tone while continuing to criticize the Liberal government’s handling of border security and energy policies.
On Monday morning, before Trump’s 30-day reprieve on tariffs, Poilievre proposed an aggressive border security plan, including:
- Deploying troops and helicopters to the Canada-U.S. border
- Hiring 2,000 additional border officers
- Expanding the powers of the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) across the entire border
Poilievre also framed Trump’s tariff threats as a consequence of Trudeau’s energy policies, arguing that Canada’s lack of pipeline development has made the country vulnerable to U.S. economic pressure.
“President Trump has been given an incredible gift by these radical, anti-development Liberals when they block the projects that would have made us more self-reliant,” Poilievre said.
While emphasizing Canada’s sovereignty and security, the Conservative leader is also walking a fine line—aiming to capitalize on voter frustrations while ensuring his party is seen as a defender of national interests rather than an opportunistic critic during economic uncertainty.
One of the key internal debates within the Conservative Party is whether to continue prioritizing attacks on the carbon tax or to pivot toward new economic issues in light of Trump’s tariffs and the upcoming Liberal leadership race.
For months, Poilievre has positioned carbon pricing as a central issue, calling for a “carbon tax election” to defeat Trudeau. However, with Trudeau stepping down and multiple Liberal leadership contenders promising to reform or suspend the carbon tax, some Conservative strategists worry the issue is losing its potency.
“We can’t let the Liberals pull the rug out from under us. By saying ‘Carbon Tax Carney’ or ‘Carbon Tax Chrystia,’ we tie them to Trudeau’s legacy.”
Others, however, argue that shifting public focus—especially with economic concerns dominating the conversation—means Poilievre may need to expand his platform beyond affordability messaging.
With the Liberal leadership race officially underway, Conservatives are already focusing their efforts on defining Mark Carney in the eyes of voters.
Unlike Trudeau, who faced highly negative approval ratings, Carney remains relatively unknown to the general public. Conservative strategists see a narrow window to shape voter perception—painting Carney as an elite, out-of-touch banker closely tied to Trudeau’s economic policies.
Recent Conservative efforts have included:
- Targeting Carney directly at public events, with Conservative MPs holding press briefings outside his campaign stops.
- Drawing contrasts between Poilievre’s working-class appeal and Carney’s background in high finance.
- Positioning Carney as an extension of Trudeau, rather than a fresh start for the Liberal Party.
“This is our chance to define Mark Carney before he defines himself,” one Conservative strategist explained. “We need to remind Canadians that he was behind Trudeau’s policies and pulling the strings all along.”
Despite recent polling showing a slight bump for the Liberals following Trudeau’s departure, the Conservatives maintain a strong lead.
- According to Abacus Data, the Conservative lead has dropped from 26 points to 21 points.
- Léger’s latest polling places the Conservative lead at 18 points.
- CBC’s Poll Tracker confirms a tightening race, but still projects a decisive Conservative victory.
One former Conservative campaign manager downplayed the shift, stating:
“There may be a temporary Liberal bump, but it won’t last. The size of the Conservative victory may shrink, but we’re still on track to win.”
Still, some Conservatives acknowledge that the political landscape is evolving, with new challenges emerging in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, where the party had hoped to make major gains.
With Trump’s tariffs looming, a new Liberal leader incoming, and evolving voter priorities, the Conservative Party is in the midst of a strategic recalibration. While Poilievre remains committed to his core affordability message, his team is actively testing new lines of attack and fine-tuning their approach to ensure the party remains firmly in the driver’s seat heading into the next election.
As Parliament remains prorogued until March 24, Poilievre is pushing for an early return, demanding that MPs pass his “Canada First” plan to address border security and economic stability. However, he has not committed to toppling the Liberal minority government at the first opportunity, choosing instead to focus on consolidating Conservative support ahead of a likely election battle against Mark Carney.
The coming weeks will determine whether Poilievre’s pivot solidifies his electoral advantage or if shifting voter priorities require further recalibration.