Conservative MPs return to Parliament Hill today for the first time since December, stepping into a dramatically altered political landscape. With Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation triggering a Liberal leadership race and Donald Trump threatening new tariffs on Canadian imports, the Conservatives face new challenges in what was once seen as a smooth path to victory.
For the past 18 months, Pierre Poilievre’s party enjoyed a double-digit lead in the polls, largely driven by dissatisfaction with Trudeau and opposition to the federal carbon tax. But with all major Liberal leadership contenders pledging to scrap the consumer carbon price, the Tories’ signature “Axe the Tax” campaign is losing momentum. Meanwhile, the gap in polling numbers between the Conservatives and Liberals has tightened significantly since Trudeau’s departure.
Adding further complexity to the Conservatives’ messaging is Trump’s return to the White House. His threat of sweeping reciprocal tariffs against Canadian exports could pose economic risks and force Poilievre to navigate a delicate balance between pushing back against U.S. policies and maintaining his party’s traditionally close ties with Republican leadership.
Against this backdrop, Poilievre is set to address his caucus this morning before heading into a crucial weekend event—his planned “Canada First” rally in Ottawa on Saturday.
As the Conservatives regroup, today’s meeting will be a key moment to recalibrate their strategy, reinforce party unity, and determine their next steps in an increasingly unpredictable political climate.