The CIA has concluded that the COVID-19 virus likely originated from a laboratory, though the agency acknowledges it has “low confidence” in its own findings, according to a declassified assessment released Saturday.
The report, commissioned by the Biden administration and former CIA Director William Burns, does not rely on new intelligence but rather a reevaluation of existing evidence. It was made public under the direction of John Ratcliffe, the newly sworn-in CIA director and an appointee of former President Donald Trump.
The agency’s nuanced assessment leans toward the lab-origin theory, but the low confidence level highlights significant gaps and contradictions in the available evidence. Intelligence officials caution that the origins of COVID-19 may never be definitively resolved, given China’s refusal to cooperate with international investigations.
“Both research-related and natural origin scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic remain plausible,” the CIA stated. The agency clarified that its conclusion stems from analyses of the virus’s spread, its biological characteristics, and the operations of Chinese virology labs, rather than any new breakthroughs.
The question of COVID-19’s origins has been a contentious issue, dividing experts and governments. Scientists largely favor the theory that the virus likely originated in bats before infecting intermediary species, such as raccoon dogs or civet cats, which were then sold at Wuhan markets. However, reports of a possible lab leak in Wuhan have fueled debate.
Two years ago, the Department of Energy released a similar low-confidence assessment favoring the lab-leak hypothesis. The CIA’s latest evaluation adds another layer of complexity to the discussion but stops short of providing definitive answers.
Lawmakers have increasingly called on U.S. intelligence agencies to investigate the origins of the pandemic, citing the virus’s devastating impact, which has claimed millions of lives and caused significant economic disruption worldwide.
John Ratcliffe, who previously served as the director of national intelligence during Trump’s presidency, has consistently championed the lab-leak theory. “The lab leak is the only theory supported by science, intelligence, and common sense,” he said in 2023.
The CIA emphasized that it will continue to evaluate any credible intelligence or information that could alter its current assessment. However, with limited cooperation from Chinese authorities, intelligence officials concede that resolving the mystery of COVID-19’s origins may remain out of reach.